The sell-off in the aussie cost the AUD/USD around 3.5c last week with the pressure currently on the $0.8984-95 support region. Key concerns for bears remain O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base which may start to limit follow through. In saying that bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus higher. For now bears target the 2014 low.
RES 4: $0.9249 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
RES 2: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 1: $0.9081 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: $0.9010
SUP 1: $0.8995 – Low Mar 20
SUP 2: $0.8984 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 3: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 4: $0.8694 – Low Jan 31
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD with bears targeting the $0.8051-0.8074 region where the 2014 low and falling daily channel base are. Bulls look for a close above $0.8285 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above the 21-DMA needed to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA. Key concerns for bears are seen from the O/S studies and Bollinger band base but in saying that, bears remain firmly in control
RES 4: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 3: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
RES 2: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 1: $0.8210 – High resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: $0.8148
SUP 1: $0.8140 – 200-WMA
SUP 2: $0.8074 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: $0.8012 – Low Sept 10 2013
Thursday’s close below the 21-DMA, the first since mid-July, was followed up with further losses to end the week and adds weight to the bearish case that initially targets the key NZ$1.0924 support from Aug 1. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the NZ$1.1226 level to shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Daily studies have room to move before becoming O/S is an issue.
RES 4: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 2: NZ$1.1139 – Hourly resistance Sept 11, 21-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.1105 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1055
SUP 1: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
SUP 2: NZ$1.0968 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0953 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0924 – Monthly low Aug 1
The close below the 21-DMA (Y97.13) to end last week adds weight to the bearish case with initial resistance now seen at Y97.15. Bears now need a close above Y97.57 to ease bearish pressure and above Y98.00 to target 2014 highs once more. For now bears target the Y96.32-45 region with a close below shifting overall focus to the 200-DMA (Y94.32).
RES 4: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 3: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: Y97.57 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
RES 1: Y97.15 – Hourly resistance Sept 12
LPRICE: Y96.67
SUP 1: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y96.32 – 50.0% Fibonacci 93.93-88.70
SUP 3: Y96.05 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y95.67 – 100-DMA
The recovery from recent fresh 2014 lows continues with the close above the 55-DMA (A$1.4310), the first since mid-March, providing bulls with additional comfort. The move higher Friday has seen the pair also close above the long term falling daily channel top which now sees bulls initially targeting the A$1.4473-1.4602 region. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DAM to shift overall focus lower.
RES 4: A$1.4602 – Monthly High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4478 – Monthly High Aug 8
RES 2: A$1.4468 – 100-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
LPRICE: A$1.4386
SUP 1: A$1.4310 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4141 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
