The spike above the 200-DMA Thursday remained capped ahead of the $0.9229 resistance level before reversing lower with bears taking additional comfort from the relatively bearish close. Immediate focus now shifts to the $0.8891-0.8995 region with bears targeting the 2014 lows from late Jan overall. The $0.9229 level confirmed significance Thursday with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.9289 – High Sept 9
RES 3: $0.9249 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
RES 1: $0.9142 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: $0.9105
SUP 1: $0.9083 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 2: $0.8995 – Low Mar 20
SUP 3: $0.8984 – 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 4: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Thursday with bears targeting the $0.8051-0.8086 region where the 2014 low and falling daily channel base are located. Bulls now look for a close above $0.8285 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with a close above the 21-DMA ($0.8354) needed to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA. Key concerns for bears are seen from the O/S studies and Bollinger band base
RES 4: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 3: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
RES 2: $0.8245 – Hourly resistance Sept 10
RES 1: $0.8210 – High resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: $0.8167
SUP 1: $0.8140 – 200-WMA
SUP 2: $0.8086 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
SUP 4: $0.8012 – Low Sept 10 2013
Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through and relatively bearish close following the spike higher Thursday that stalled around the NZ$1.1226 resistance level. Bears still need a close below Wednesday’s NZ$1.1089 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (NZ$1.1129) and shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0902-1.0946 region where the 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.1226 to regain control and target 2014 highs
RES 4: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 2: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 1: NZ$1.1139 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: NZ$1.1127
SUP 1: NZ$1.1089 – Low Sept 10
SUP 2: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
SUP 3: NZ$1.0969 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0953 – 55-DMA
Thursday’s spike back towards the 2014 high lacked follow through with bears taking comfort in the relatively bearish close that is pressuring the Y97.25 support. With 21-DMA noted at Y97.05 bears need a close below Y96.78 to confirm a break and hint at a bigger sell-off with a close below Y97.45 confirming. Bulls now need a close above Y98.00 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure.
RES 4: Y98.68 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: Y98.34 – High Sept 11
RES 2: Y98.00 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 1: Y97.57 – Hourly resistance Sept 11
LPRICE: Y97.37
SUP 1: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 4: Y96.05 – 55-DMA
The recovery continued Thursday with the close above the 21-DMA (A$1.4141) providing bulls with some comfort. The rally has so far stalled at the A$1.4221 level with bulls looking for a close above to add support to their case for a move back to the A$1.4410-78 region. Above A$1.4221 sees immediate focus shift to the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA A$1.4308-12. Bears need a close below A$1.4012 to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4312 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4308 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 1: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: A$1.4210
SUP 1: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 2: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
SUP 3: A$1.3788 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: A$1.3551 – Low June 5 2013
