The correction lower from last week’s brief pop above the $0.9400 level gathered momentum again Tuesday with the AUD/USD having found support for now ahead of the 200-DMA. It should be noted the pair last closed below the 200-DMA in late March. The key concerns for bears comes from the close well below the Bollinger band base which may see some consolidation while it catches up. A close below the 200-DMA targets $0.8891-0.8995.
RES 4: $0.9328 – Low Sept 4 now resistance
RES 3: $0.9289 – High Sept 9
RES 2: $0.9249 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
LPRICE: $0.9209
SUP 1: $0.9182 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9119 – Low Mar 25
SUP 3: $0.9083 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 4: $0.8995 – Low Mar 20
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Tuesday with bears now targeting the $0.8051-0.8110 region where the 2014 low and falling daily channel base are located. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8351 to confirm a break of the channel top and ease bearish pressure and above $0.8411 to shift immediate focus back to the 200-DMA. The 200-WMA is noted at $0.8140 with a close below expected to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: $0.8374 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: $0.8351 – High Sept 4
RES 2: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 1: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
LPRICE: $0.8240
SUP 1: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 2: $0.8140 – 200-WMA
SUP 3: $0.8110 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
Cracks are appearing in the uptrend with the first two consecutive down days for the AUD/NZD since late July combined with the close below the NZ$1.1190 previous support. Immediate focus now shifts to the key NZ$1.1101 support with a close below needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0927-39 region. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.1226 to regain control and shift focus back to fresh 2014 highs.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 2: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 1: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
LPRICE: NZ$1.1166
SUP 1: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous daily high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.0939 – 55-DMA
Recent hesitation ahead of the 2014 high has resulted in a sell-off with the close below the previous Y97.81 support having eased bullish pressure a little. Overall a close below Y96.45 remains needed to confirm a break of the 21 DMA shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs Y95.59-99. Initial resistance has developed on the hourlies at the Y98.00 level with bulls needing a close above to relieve the renewed bearish pressure.
RES 4: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 3: Y98.94 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y98.68 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 1: Y98.00 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
LPRICE: Y97.66
SUP 1: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 4: Y95.99 – 55-DMA
Time spent below the 100-WMA (A$1.4012) has been brief with the bounce back above the A$1.4037 level confirming an easing of bearish pressure and seeing immediate focus shift to the A$1.4172-1.4221 region. Bulls now need a close above A$1.4221 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see focus shift to the A$1.4283-1.4478 region. Bears now need a close below A$1.3927 to see bearish pressure reconfirmed.
RES 4: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 3: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 2: A$1.4172 – High Sept 3
RES 1: A$1.4164 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4058
SUP 1: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
SUP 2: A$1.3788 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 3: A$1.3551 – Low June 5 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3370 – Monthly Low June 3 2013
