AUD/USD has been unable to capitalise on Friday’s close above the 55-DMA with the sell-off Monday seeing the pair close back below 55, 100 & 21-DMAs with immediate focus having returned to $0.9223-63. The pair has not closed below the 55-WMA since April with bears looking for a close below to add weight to the bearish case. Initial resistance is noted at $0.9328 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.9477 – High July 24
RES 3: $0.9477 – High July 24
RES 2: $0.9401 – High Sept 5
RES 1: $0.9328 – Low Sept 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9280
SUP 1: $0.9263 – Low Sept 3
SUP 2: $0.9257 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
SUP 4: $0.9223 – 55-WMA
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Monday with bears firmly focused on the $0.8122-87 region where the falling daily channel base is located. Bears now need to see a close above $0.8351 to confirm a break of the channel top ($0.8344) and ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above $0.8411 is now needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA. The Bollinger band base is the key concern for bears
RES 4: $0.8388 – 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8374 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $0.8351 – High Sept 4
RES 1: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
LPRICE: $0.8277
SUP 1: $0.8262 – Low Sept 8, Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 4: $0.8122 – Falling daily channel base
After the lack of follow through on Friday’s move to fresh 2014 highs, Monday has seen the AUD/NZD take the first decent backward step in a number of weeks with immediate focus returning to the NZ$1.1190 support. Bears look for a close below $1.1190 to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below NZ$1.1101 is needed to shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0927 Aug monthly low. Bears take comfort in correcting O/B daily studies which are starting to weigh.
RES 4: NZ$1.1417 – Rising daily channel top
RES 3: NZ$1.1388 – High Nov 8 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 1: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
LPRICE: NZ$1.1210
SUP 1: NZ$1.1190 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 3: NZ$1.1101 – Previous daily high now support
SUP 4: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
Following on from Friday’s marginal fresh 2014 and 17 month highs the AUD/JPY took the first backward step in a number of week’s Monday with the lack of follow through and O/B daily studies a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears still need a close below Y97.81 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Overall a close below Y96.45 is needed to confirm a break of the 21 DMA shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs Y95.58-95.
RES 4: Y99.23 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 2: Y98.78 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y98.68 – 2014 High Sept 5
LPRICE: Y98.37
SUP 1: Y98.07 – Low Sept 8
SUP 2: Y97.81 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
Following recent fresh 2014 and 15 month lows the EUR/AUD bounced a little Monday as O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base (A$1.3824) remain key concerns for bears. A$1.4037 remains key resistance with a close above needed to shift immediate focus back to A$1.4172-1.4221. Last week’s selloff has seen overall focus shift to A$1.3190-1.3370 and the first close below the 100-WMA since May adds weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: A$1.4182 – 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4172 – High Sept 3
RES 2: A$1.4037 – Previous 2014 low now resistance
RES 1: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8
LPRICE: A$1.3890
SUP 1: A$1.3788 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 2: A$1.3551 – Low June 5 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3370 – Monthly Low June 3 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3318 – Low May 24 2013
