AUD/USD rallied to fresh 2 month highs O/N, spiking above both the Bollinger top and the previous $0.9374 resistance level. Of some concern to bulls is the lack of follow through with the pair also failing to close above the 55-DMA. In saying that, bears now need to see a close below $0.9328 to ease bullish pressure and see focus shift back to the $0.9180-0.9235 region. While $0.9328 supports there is an increased risk of further topside attempts.
RES 4: $0.9477 – High July 24
RES 3: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.9394 – High Sept 4
RES 1: $0.9366 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.9350
SUP 1: $0.9328 – Low Sept 4
SUP 2: $0.9263 – Low Sept 3
SUP 3: $0.9254 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.9235 – Monthly Low Aug 21
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the NZD/USD Wednesday before finding support ahead of the Feb 26 low. Bears look for a close below $0.8281 to reconfirm bearish pressure. The $0.8404-37 region remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA to hint at a bigger bounce initially targeting the $0.8537-0.8649 region. The proximity of the Bollinger band base may limit follow through.
RES 4: $0.8437 – High Aug 20
RES 3: $0.8404 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8374 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: $0.8351 – High Sept 4
LPRICE: $0.8311
SUP 1: $0.8281 – Low Feb 26
SUP 2: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 3: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 4: $0.8082 – 2014 Low Feb 4
AUD/NZD continues to work its way towards NZ$1.1312-1.1417 with fresh 2014 and 10 month highs. Key support is noted at the previous 2014 high of NZ$1.1190 with bears now needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. Bears now look for a close below NZ$1.1101 to hint at a deeper correction with a close below the 21-DMA (NZ$1.1078) to confirm The key concerns for bulls are O/B studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top.
RES 4: NZ$1.1417 – Rising daily channel top
RES 3: NZ$1.1383 – High Nov 8 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 1: NZ$1.1272 – 2014 High Sept 3
LPRICE: NZ$1.1258
SUP 1: NZ$1.1216 – Low Sept 4
SUP 2: NZ$1.1190 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1124 – Low Sept 2
SUP 4: NZ$1.1101 – Previous daily high now support
Fresh 2014 and 17 month highs continue for the AUD/JPY with the Bollinger band top limiting topside follow through a little. Initial support is now noted in the Y97.81-98.19 region but bears really need a close below Y97.25 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Overall a close below Y96.45 is needed to shift focus back to key DMAs clustered in the Y95.52-85 region. In addition to the Bollinger band top bulls will be wary of O/B daily studies.
RES 4: Y99.15 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 2: Y98.59 – 2014 High Sept 4
RES 1: Y98.52 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: Y98.37
SUP 1: Y98.19 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: Y97.81 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 4: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
The sharp fall through the previous A$1.4001-37 region saw losses accelerate with fresh 2014 and 15 month lows and a relatively bearish close. Initial resistance is noted on the hourlies at A$1.3901 but bulls need to see a close above the previous 2014 low at A$1.4037 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. The proximity of the Bollinger band base may slow the move until it catches up but overall focus has shifted to the A$1.3190-1.3370 region.
RES 4: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 3: A$1.4172 – High Sept 3
RES 2: A$1.4037 – Previous 2014 low now resistance
RES 1: A$1.3901 – Hourly resistance Sept 4
LPRICE: A$1.3839
SUP 1: A$1.3804 – 2014 Low Sept 4
SUP 2: A$1.3370 – Monthly Low June 3 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3318 – Low May 24 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3190 – High Feb 3 2013 now support
