Despite a fresh new high for the move overnight, the Dollar has fallen back and appears to be vulnerable to more modest declines ahead. Perhaps the trade is backing away from the Dollar because of theconflicted economic flow from the US yesterday and perhaps some longs have decided to bank long profits andstand aside because of a thin to empty US economic report slate today. The Dollar is deriving some support fromanother round of slack German economic readings from consumer sentiment and confidence surveys overnightespecially since the survey said consumers expect the German economy to “downshift 1 or 2 gears”. Thereforethe Dollar might show some temporary profit taking weakness but there continues to be almost no growthcompetition to suggest the uptrend in the Dollar has run its course.
Technical Outlook: A new contract high was made on the rally. Studies are showing positivemomentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market’s short-term trend ispositive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market abullish tilt. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upsidetarget is at 82.90. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area ofresistance is around 82.81 and 82.90, while 1st support hits today at 82.57 and below there at 82.40.