NZD/USD’s drop through key support at .8410/02, made up of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2013-14 rise and the June low, confirms a major long term top formation with the 200 week moving average at .8134 being targeted. En route lies the 50% retracement at .8278. Any bounce should now encounter resistance at .8402/31, the upper level of which is where the August 22 high was made.
While no rise above the next higher 200 day moving average at .8468 is made, we will retain our medium term bearish outlook. While NZD/USD remains below the 55 day moving average at .8610 we will retain our long term negative outlook.
Commerzbank