AUD/USD has started to work its way through the previously noted $0.9344-74 resistance region with the pair remaining capped at the Bollinger band top Wednesday. Bulls will take some comfort in the first close above the 21-DMA ($0.9307) since late July but still need to see a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus to the 2014 high. Bears now need a close below $0.9300 to reconfirm bearish focus.
RES 4: $0.9426 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9364 – 55-DMA
RES 1: $0.9354 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.9337
SUP 1: $0.9328 – Hourly support Aug 27
SUP 2: $0.9300 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: $0.9272 – Low Aug 26
SUP 4: $0.9235 – Low Aug 21
Following fresh 6 month lows Tuesday the NZD/USD bounced from below the Bollinger band base back towards layers of resistance in the $0.8411-69 region. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top and 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure, shifting immediate focus to the $0.8537 resistance level. The proximity of the Bollinger band base and O/S studies may limit downside follow through on further dips.
RES 4: $0.8537 – Monthly High Aug 1
RES 3: $0.8469 – 200-DMA
RES 2: $0.8447 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8411 – Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $0.8373
SUP 1: $0.8360 – Hourly support Aug 27
SUP 2: $0.8339 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: $0.8323 – Hourly support Aug 26
SUP 4: $0.8311 – Low Aug 26
Bulls remain focused on NZ$1.1223-1.1312 where the trend line projections and highs from Nov 2013 are located. Initial support is noted in the NZ$1.1101-29 region with bears needing a close below NZ$1.1101 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure. Bears then look for a close below NZ$1.1013 to shift overall focus back to the NZ$1.0824-76 region. Daily studies are approaching O/B but the proximity of the Bolli top (NZ$1.1160) remains the key concern for now.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013, Trend line projection
RES 2: NZ$1.1186 – 2014 High Aug 26
RES 1: NZ$1.1164 – High Aug 27
LPRICE: NZ$1.1142
SUP 1: NZ$1.1129 – Low Aug 26
SUP 2: NZ$1.1101 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 4: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
The bounce from the Y96.45 support Tuesday resulted in marginal fresh 2014 and 14 month highs yesterday but O/B daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band top appear to be concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears continue to look for a close below Y96.45 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and a close below the 100-DMA (Y95.40) to shift overall focus back to retests of the monthly low so far and the 200-DMA (Y94.03).
RES 4: Y99.08 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 3: Y97.60 – Daily trend line projection
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
RES 1: Y97.16 – 2014 High Aug 27
LPRICE: Y97.01
SUP 1: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 2: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 3: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 4: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
EUR/AUD briefly traded above the previous initial resistance level Tuesday before heading down to fresh 2014 and 9 month lows Wednesday. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.4221 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the A$1.4478 level. While A$1.4222 caps bears initially target the Nov monthly low with key concerns for bears being O/S daily studies and the proximity of the Bollinger band base.
RES 4: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 3: A$1.4331- 21-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 1: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
LPRICE: A$1.4131
SUP 1: A$1.4096 – 2014 Low Aug 27
SUP 2: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 3: A$1.3989 – 100-WMA
SUP 4: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
