Not surprisingly the Dollar is on the defensive in the wake of slack US data flows on Monday. Whilethere might be some renewed geopolitical uncertainty in play after reports of Russian aggression against theUkraine yesterday, the safe haven interest in the Dollar is being countervailed by fresh doubt toward the USeconomy. However, the Dollar is cushioned by political turmoil in France, ongoing calls for more EU stimulus andby fears of additional sanctions against Russia. Therefore the key driving force for the Dollar today might comefrom US scheduled data flows which are pretty active today. In addition to US durable goods, the trade will alsobe presented with a Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a Richmond Fed Business Activity survey and ConsumerConfidence for August. Expectations calls for Durable Goods to rise by roughly 5% following a disappointingreading last month. Consumer Confidence is also expected to be a little weaker which suggest that US data flowstoday might end up being contradictory. It is also possible that the private home price survey release today mightbe the pivot point result today as Durable look to support the Dollar and Consumer confidence looks to underminethe Dollar.
Technical Outlook: The rally brought the market to a new contract high. Studies are showing positivemomentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend shorttermwas given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number,the market is in a moderately positive position. The next upside target is 82.79. The market is approachingoverbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance is around 82.69 and 82.79, while 1st supporthits today at 82.50 and below there at 82.40.