Following the aggressive bounce Thursday the AUD/USD managed a spike above the 21-DMA ($0.9318) to end the week but remained capped ahead of the 100-DMA ($0.9343). The $0.9344-74 resistance region is key for the pair this week with bulls needing a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of the 100 & 55-DMAs, end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 highs. While $0.9344-74 caps bears target a break of last week’s lows.
RES 4: $0.9396 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9367 – 55-DMA
RES 1: $0.9344 – High Aug 19
LPRICE: $0.9298
SUP 1: $0.9293 – Low Aug 22
SUP 2: $0.9235 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
The sell-off Thursday found support ahead of the Mar monthly low before bouncing to pressure initial resistance. Layers of resistance remain in the $0.8450-73 region including the channel top with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish. Overall bulls need to see a close above $0.8535 to hint at a bigger bounce and initially target the $0.8589-0.8649 region. While the 21-DMA caps bears target the channel base
RES 4: $0.8473 – 21-DMA
RES 3: $0.8468 – 200-DMA
RES 2: $0.8450 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: $0.8431 – High Aug 22
LPRICE: $0.8391
SUP 1: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 2: $0.8307 – 100-WMA
SUP 3: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
SUP 4: $0.8239 – Falling daily channel base
The rally that commenced after finding support at the 21-DMA has so far remained capped at the longer term rising daily channel top for a third day with the proximity of the Bollinger band top(NZ$1.1088) likely to be limiting follow through. Layers of support remain in the NZ$1.0924-1.1050 region with bears needing a close below NZ$1.1050 to ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0924 to confirm an end to bullish hopes and target the NZ$1.0824-68 region.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1216 – Trend line projection April/early June highs
RES 1: NZ$1.1102 – Daily channel top Feb/Mar/July lows
LPRICE: NZ$1.1075
SUP 1: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 2: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
SUP 3: NZ$1.0997 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0989 – Previous hourly resistance now support
The rally that commenced with support at the 21-DMA earlier in the week continues to produce fresh 2014 and 14 month highs. The Bollinger band tops come in around Y96.55-75 and may limit follow through above this region but overall focus has now shifted to the rising weekly channel top at Y99.00. Bears now look for a close below Friday’s low to ease bullish pressure and below Y94.96 to end bullish hopes and target the 200-DMA
RES 4: Y100.96 – High May 22 2013
RES 3: Y99.99 – High May 23 2013
RES 2: Y99.00 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 1: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
LPRICE: Y96.85
SUP 1: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 2: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 4: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
Fresh 2014 and 9 month lows were seen for the EUR/AUD to end last week with the relatively bearish close adding weight to the bearish case that sees immediate focus on the A$1.3812 June 13 2013 low. Rallies continue to be capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above A$1.4478 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to A$1.4602.
RES 4: A$1.4414 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15, Falling daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4350 – 21-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
LPRICE: A$1.4187
SUP 1: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 2: A$1.3971 – 100-WMA
SUP 3: A$1.3861 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3812 – Low June 13 2013
