The sell-off Thursday saw the AUD/USD trade at 2 month lows before bouncing back towards layers of resistance for a relatively bullish close. The lack of downside follow through is of some concern to bears but bulls now need to see a close above $0.9344 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. While $0.9344 caps bears continue to target the $0.9175-0.9202 region.
RES 4: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 3: $0.9367 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.9344 – High Aug 19
RES 1: $0.9318 – High Aug 20
LPRICE: $0.9302
SUP 1: $0.9235 – Low Aug 21
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9175 – 200-DMA
The sell-off Thursday found support ahead of the Mar monthly low before bouncing to pressure initial resistance. Layers of resistance remain in the $0.8463-95 region including the channel top with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish. Overall bulls need to see a close above $0.8535 to hint at a bigger bounce and initially target the $0.8589-0.8649 region.
RES 4: $0.8535 – High Aug 1
RES 3: $0.8481 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8468 – 200-DMA
RES 1: $0.8413 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
LPRICE: $0.8400
SUP 1: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 2: $0.8307 – 100-WMA
SUP 3: $0.8252 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
The rally that commenced at the 21-DMA earlier in the week has remained capped at the longer term rising daily channel top for a second day with the proximity of the Bollinger band top (NZ$1.1074) likely to be limiting follow through. Layers of support remain in the NZ$1.0924-1.1050 region with bears needing a close below NZ$1.1050 to ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0924 to confirm an end to bullish hopes and target the NZ$1.0824-66 region.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1213 – Trend line projection April/early June highs
RES 1: NZ$1.1100 – Daily channel top Feb/Mar/July lows
LPRICE: NZ$1.1067
SUP 1: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 2: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
SUP 3: NZ$1.0982 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0989 – Previous hourly resistance now support
The rally that commenced with support at the 21-DMA earlier in the week has resulted in fresh 2014 and 14 month highs. The Bollinger band tops come in around Y96.55-60 and may limit follow through above this region but overall focus has now shifted to the rising weekly channel top at Y99.00. Bears now look for a close below Thursday’s low to ease bullish pressure and below Y94.96 to end bullish hopes and target the 200-DMA
RES 4: Y99.36 – High May 23 2013
RES 3: Y99.00 – Rising weekly channel top
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
RES 1: Y96.62 – 2014 High Aug 21
LPRICE: Y96.57
SUP 1: Y96.50 – Hourly support Aug 21
SUP 2: Y95.94 – Low Aug 21
SUP 3: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 4: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
Rallies continue to be capped ahead of the 21-DMA with the EUR/AUD again dipping towards the A$1.4194-1.4239 support region as a result. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above A$1.4478 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to A$1.4602. While the 21-DMA caps immediate bearish focus remains on the 2014 low with a break lower then targeting the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4422 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4413 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 1: A$1.4355 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4277
SUP 1: A$1.4239 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 3: A$1.4194 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly low Nov 7 2013
