The lack of follow through on the spike above the 21 & 100-DMAs Tuesday has now been followed up with a break below the previous $0.9288 support. This is seen adding weight to the bearish case with focus now having shifted to the $0.9175-0.9202 region where the 200-DMA and falling channel base are located. Bulls now need a close above $0.9318 to ease the renewed bearish pressure and above $0.9374 to send bearish hopes and target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 3: $0.9368 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.9344 – High Aug 19
RES 1: $0.9318 – High Aug 20
LPRICE: $0.9284
SUP 1: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9175 – 200-DMA
Recent topside failures have been followed up with a close below the 200-DMA with Wednesdays break and close below the $0.8402 support seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.8243-66 region. Layers of resistance are noted in the $0.8467-95 region with bulls needing a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift focus back to further layers of resistance in the $0.8589-0.8649 region.
RES 4: $0.8535 – High Aug 1
RES 3: $0.8495 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8467 – 200-DMA
RES 1: $0.8413 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
LPRICE: $0.8370
SUP 1: $0.8369 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 3: $0.8266 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
Gains continue for Aussie-kiwi with the AUD/NZD pressuring the rising daily channel top and the relatively bullish close adding support to the case for higher levels. Bulls are currently targeting NZ$1.1223-1.1312 overall, last seen in Nov 2013. Initial support is now noted NZ$1.0983-1.1050 with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure. Overall a close below the key NZ$1.0924 support is needed to end bullish hopes.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1210 – Trend line projection April/early June highs
RES 1: NZ$1.1100 – Daily channel top Feb/Mar/July lows
LPRICE: NZ$1.1091
SUP 1: NZ$1.1050 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 2: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
SUP 3: NZ$1.0989 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 4: NZ$1.0983 – 21-DMA
The recent run of higher daily highs continued Wednesday with the break above the rally seeing pressure shift to the 2014 highs. Layers of support are noted on the hourlies in the Y95.59-96.14 region with bears needing a close below Y95.59 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. While the Y95.59-96.14 region supports bulls favour fresh 2014 highs with focus then shifting to the Y99.36-100.96 region last seen in May 2013.
RES 4: Y100.96 – High May 22 2013
RES 3: Y99.36 – High May 23 2013
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 2013
RES 1: Y96.54 – 2014 High July 1
LPRICE: Y96.41
SUP 1: Y96.14 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 2: Y95.87 – Hourly support Aug 20
SUP 3: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 4: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
Rallies have remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA the past two days with the EUR/AUD dipping towards the A$1.4194-1.4232 support region as a result. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above A$1.4478 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to A$1.4602. While the 21-DMA caps immediate bearish focus remains on the 2014 low with a break lower then targeting the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4429 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: A$1.4425 – High Aug 13
RES 2: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 1: A$1.4355 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4276
SUP 1: A$1.4232 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 3: A$1.4194 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly low Nov 7 2013
