The lack of follow through on the spike above the 21 & 100-DMAs Tuesday combined with a relatively bearish close are of some concern to bears with focus shifting back to the key $0.9288 support. Bears continue to look for a close back below $0.9288 to reconfirm bearish focus and see bears targeting the $0.9176-0.9202 region with the 200-DMA at $0.9176. Bulls need a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to retests of the 2014 high.
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9368 – 55-DMA
RES 1: $0.9344 – High Aug 19
LPRICE: $0.9297
SUP 1: $0.9288 – Low Aug 14
SUP 2: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
Lower daily highs have resulted in a break and close back below the 200-DMA with it then having capped the bounce on Tuesday. Immediate focus has returned to the $0.8402-08 support region with bears favouring a break lower while the 200-DMA caps. A break lower then sees immediate focus shift to the March low and overall focus to the 2014 low at $0.8051 set on Feb 4. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.8535 – High Aug 1
RES 2: $0.8509 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8467 – 200-DMA
LPRICE: $0.8421
SUP 1: $0.8408 – Low Aug 12
SUP 2: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8373 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
After having found support at the 21-DMA the AUD/NZD rallied to fresh 2014 and 9 month highs Tuesday. Fresh 2014 highs now see bulls targeting the NZ$1.1223-1.1312 region last seen in Nov 2013. Initial support is noted in the NZ$1.0971-1.1013 region with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure. Overall a close below the key NZ$1.0924 support is needed to end bullish hopes and target NZ$1.0824-63.
RES 4: NZ$1.1312 – High Nov 20 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1086 – Weekly channel top
RES 1: NZ$1.1068 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: NZ$1.1044
SUP 1: NZ$1.1013 – Hourly support Aug 19
SUP 2: NZ$1.0989 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0971 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
Fresh highs for the month and a move above the previous Y95.86-91 region adds support to the bullish case and sees bulls targeting the 2014 highs at Y96.54. The key concern for bulls are the proximity of daily and weekly Bollinger band tops which may limit follow through on a move to fresh 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below Y95.59 to ease bullish pressure and below Y94.96 to shift overall focus back to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: Y96.54 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: Y96.29 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y96.21 – High July 24
RES 1: Y95.97 – High Aug 19
LPRICE: Y95.73
SUP 1: Y95.59 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 2: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
SUP 3: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 4: Y93.95 – 200-DMA
Layers of resistance are noted in the A$1.4406-78 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4478 to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the A$1.4603 level and a close above $1.4406 to ease bearish pressure. While A$1.4478 caps, bears initially target the 2014 low with a break below seeing focus shift to the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low. Daily studies are heading lower with room to move before becoming O/S and add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: A$1.4429 – Falling daily channel top
RES 3: A$1.4425 – High Aug 13
RES 2: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
RES 1: A$1.4355 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4315
SUP 1: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 2: A$1.4238 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly low Nov 7 2013
