EUR: EURUSD is holding last week’s range. The pair has formed reasonable resistance around 1.3410-20 after testing it a few times last week. A break there would indicate a test of further resistance around 1.3470-80. Buy on current dips towards 1.3365, for a test higher.
JPY: USDJPY still has key resistance at 103.10, the 50% retracement of January-February correction, and support at 102.20 ahead of 102.02. With no important data releases today, we may go long risk but see limited potential. Cut USDJPY around 102.70/80.
GBP: Sterling has a busy week ahead. Cable is recovering from the lows seen after the BoE’s Inflation Report but it is unlikely to remain muted ahead of the BoE minutes, UK CPI and retail sales data. Buy cable on dips to 1.6700 with a tight stop below.
AUD: AUDUSD was stuck in a 0.9309-0.9328 range in Asia, unaffected by a series of China data. The RBA minutes tomorrow and Governor Stevens’ Semi Annual Testimony are in focus this week along with the Eastern Ukraine crisis. Sell into rallies; watch resistance at 0.9341 ahead of 09360, 0.9410 and the uptrend line at 0.9310.
UBS