Following last week’s bounce the AUD/USD is struggling to overcome the 21 & 100-DMAs in the $0.9339-41 region. A break higher would provide bulls with some breathing room and see the immediate focus shift to the $0.9667-74 region. A close above this region remains needed to end bearish hopes and see bulls targeting 2014 highs. $0.9288 remains key support with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish focus and target the $0.9176-0.9202 region.
RES 4: $0.9446 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 1: $0.9339 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9324
SUP 1: $0.9288 – Low Aug 14
SUP 2: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
NZD/USD continues to find support ahead of the 200-DMA for now although the lack of follow through following last week’s bounce from below the 200-DMA and the fact the 21-DMA is now noted at $0.8522 are concerns for bulls. In saying that, bulls need a close above $0.8535 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to the $0.8618-49 region where key DMAs are located. Bears need a close below $0.8449 to reconfirm bearish focus.
RES 4: $0.8624 – 55-DMA
RES 3: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.8535 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8522 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.8473
SUP 1: $0.8466 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8449 – Hourly support Aug 13
SUP 3: $0.8408 – Low Aug 12
SUP 4: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
The previous two pullbacks from around the NZ$1.1050 level found support in the NZ$1.0924-30 region with the recent pullback from NZ$1.1025 finding support ahead of the 21-DMA. The NZ$1.0924-59 region remains key support this week with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to key DMAs clustered NZ$1.0840-61. While NZ$1.0924 supports bulls will target 2014 highs and then the weekly channel top around NZ$1.1086.
RES 4: NZ$1.1086 – Weekly channel top
RES 3: NZ$1.1078 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 1: NZ$1.1025 – High Aug 13
LPRICE: NZ$1.1000
SUP 1: NZ$1.0989 – Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.0959 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0862 – 55-DMA
The break back above Y95.00 Wednesday eased bearish pressure with the AUD/JPY heading towards initial resistance Friday. Immediate focus remains on the Y95.85-91 region level with bulls continuing to look for a close above to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 high. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at Y95.50 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below Y94.96 to shift focus lower
RES 4: Y96.26 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.21 – High July 24
RES 2: Y95.91 – Falling trend line 2014 highs
RES 1: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
LPRICE: Y95.60
SUP 1: Y95.50 – Hourly support Aug 18
SUP 2: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
SUP 3: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 4: Y93.94 – 200-DMA
Layers of resistance are noted in the A$1.4406-78 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4478 to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the A$1.4603 level which represents the June 3 high and the 100-DMA. While A$1.4478 caps, bears initially target the 2014 low with a break below seeing focus shift to the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low. Daily studies are heading lower with room to move before becoming O/S and add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: A$1.4478 – High Aug 8
RES 3: A$1.4436 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4425 – High Aug 13
RES 1: A$1.4406 – High Aug 15
LPRICE: A$1.4327
SUP 1: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 2: A$1.4241 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly low Nov 7 2013
