The rally in the Swiss this morning would seem to be the result of slack US data and a temporary pause in official Ukraine developments. However, looming prospects of a significant geopolitical event in the Ukraineleaves the Swiss extremely vulnerable. In fact, slack Euro zone data earlier this morning and the potential for a 1-2 punch from Russia off a border incursion, followed by a cut off of natural gas supply flow to Europe, shouldultimately leave the Swiss in a downward track. Look to sell a rally in the September Swiss to 1.1062 off a rise inUS claims.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a movehigher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains belowthe 9-day moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The neartermupside target is at 110.94. The next area of resistance is around 110.57 and 110.94, while 1st support hitstoday at 109.89 and below there at 109.57.