AUD/USD is working its way towards the 21 & 100-DMAs in the $0.9340-44 region with initial support now noted at $0.9288. Focus remains on layers of resistance $0.9340-74 and bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 highs. Bears now need to see a close back below $0.9288 to reignite bearish pressure and shift focus to the $0.9176-0.9202 region with the 200-DMA at $0.9176.
RES 4: $0.9453 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 1: $0.9344 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9318
SUP 1: $0.9288 – Low Aug 14
SUP 2: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
NZD/USD made headway above the 200-DMA ($0.8464) on Thursday as it worked its way through the previously identified key $0.8496-0.8537 resistance region. The 21-DMA now comes in at $0.8540 increasing the significance of a break above that confirms an easing of bearish pressure. Above the $0.8537-40 region sees focus shift to layers of resistance $0.8589-0.8649 with a close above $0.8649 ending bearish hopes and targeting 2014 highs
RES 4: $0.8649 – Previous daily low now resistance
RES 3: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.8540 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: $0.8490
SUP 1: $0.8479 – Hourly support Aug 14
SUP 2: $0.8449 – Hourly support Aug 13
SUP 3: $0.8408 – Low Aug 12
SUP 4: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
The rally from ahead of NZ$1.0924 appears to have run out of steam. This sees focus return to the key NZ$1.0924 support with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bullish pressure with bears then initially targeting layers of support in the NZ$1.0824-60 region where key DMAs are located. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.1025 to reconfirm bullish pressure and shift focus to the NZ$1.1130-1.1200 region.
RES 4: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 3: NZ$1.1025 – High Aug 13
RES 2: NZ$1.1005 – Hourly resistance Aug 13
RES 1: NZ$1.0985 – Hourly resistance Aug 13
LPRICE: NZ$1.0970
SUP 1: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0860 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 – Low July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0774 – Low July 21
The break back above Y95.00 eased bearish pressure with the AUD/JPY having marginally traded above the 55-DMA (Y95.50) Thursday. The rally has seen immediate focus shift to the Y95.85 level with bulls continuing to look for a close above to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 high. Initial support is noted Y95.23 with bears needing a close below to ease the renewed bullish pressure and below Y94.53 to shift focus back to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: Y96.27 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.21 – High July 24
RES 2: Y95.95 – Falling trend line 2014 highs
RES 1: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
LPRICE: Y95.46
SUP 1: Y95.23 – Low Aug 14
SUP 2: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
SUP 3: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 4: Y93.91 – 200-DMA
The correction lower has continued and combined with another relatively bearish close below the 21-DMA (A$1.4368) and correcting O/B daily studies adds weight to the bearish case. Bears target the A$1.4209-65 region although follow through below A$1.4241 may initially be limited due to the proximity of the Bollinger band base. Initial resistance is noted at Thursday’s high with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: A$1.4478 – High Aug 8
RES 3: A$1.4454 – 55-DMA, Falling daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4425 – High Aug 13
RES 1: A$1.4384 – High Aug 14
LPRICE: A$1.4340
SUP 1: A$1.4317 – Rising short term channel base
SUP 2: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 3: A$1.4241 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
