O/S daily studies have finally had an impact with the rally Wednesday and possible close above confirming an easing of bearish pressure. Focus shifts to layers of resistance in the $0.9339-75 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.9374 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 highs. Bears now need to see a close back below $0.9296 to signal a false break and shift focus back to the $0.9177-0.9202 region.
RES 4: $0.9455 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 1: $0.9346 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9304
SUP 1: $0.9296 – Hourly support Aug 13
SUP 2: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 3: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
NZD/USD continued to chop around the 200-DMA Wednesday as it bounced towards key resistance. The $0.8496-0.8537 region remains key resistance for the pair with bulls needing a close above $0.8537 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.8649 to end bearish hopes, confirm a break of key DMAs and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below $0.8402 reconfirm bearish focus but O/S studies may limit downside.
RES 4: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.8551 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8457
SUP 1: $0.8442 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $0.8408 – Low Aug 12
SUP 3: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $0.8365 – Bollinger band base
The rally continued Wednesday but of some concern to bulls is the lack of follow through as the AUD/NZD approaches the 2014 high and layers of resistance in the NZ$1.1055-99 region. In saying that, bears need to see a close below the NZ$1.0969-80 support reason to ease the renewed bullish pressure while a close below the key NZ$1.0924 support then needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0824-60 region.
RES 4: NZ$1.1099 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 1: NZ$1.1025 – High Aug 12
LPRICE: NZ$1.1000
SUP 1: NZ$1.0980 – Hourly support Aug 12
SUP 2: NZ$1.0969 – High Aug 8 now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 4: NZ$1.0846 – 200-DMA
The break back above Y95.00 on Wednesday eased bearish pressure as the AUD/JPY managed a spike above the 21 & 100-DMAs before stalling ahead of the 55-DMA. The rally has seen immediate focus shift to the Y95.85 level with bulls continuing to look for a close above to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014 high. Initial support is noted Y94.96-95.23 to signal a false break and shift focus back to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: Y96.26 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.21 – High July 24
RES 2: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
RES 1: Y95.49 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y95.31
SUP 1: Y95.23 – Hourly support Aug 13
SUP 2: Y94.96 – Breakout level Aug 13 now support
SUP 3: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 4: Y93.90 – 200-DMA
Following failures at the 55-DMA the correction lower continued and combined with a relatively bearish close below the 21-DMA (A$1.4372) and correcting O/B daily studies adds weight to the bearish case. Bears now target the A$1.4209-65 although follow through below A$1.4242 may initially be limited due to the proximity of the Bollinger band base. Initial resistance is noted at Wednesday’s high with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: A$1.4502 – Bollinger band top
RES 3: A$1.4478 – High Aug 8
RES 2: A$1.4459 – 55-DMA, Falling daily channel top
RES 1: A$1.4425 – High Aug 13
LPRICE: A$1.4361
SUP 1: A$1.4377 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 3: A$1.4242 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
