The $0.9292 initial resistance level has again capped the AUD/USD. Bulls need a close above $0.9292 to ease bearish pressure and a close above $0.9374 to confirm a break of 21 & 55-DMAs and end bearish hopes. This then sees focus shift back to the $0.9477-0.9505 region. While $0.9292 caps immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.9180-0.9202 region where the 200-DMA is noted. The key concern for bears are O/S studies and the proximity of the lower Bolli.
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9374 – High Aug 6
RES 2: $0.9355 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.9292 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9261
SUP 1: $0.9239 – Low Aug 8
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9179 – 200-DMA
Narrow sideways trading to see start the week sees the NZD/USD capped ahead of initial resistance. In saying that, bulls look for a close above $0.8537 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.8649 to end bearish hopes, confirm a break of key DMAs and shift overall focus back to 2014 highs. Bears need to see a close below $0.8402 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and add weight to a bearish case targeting 2014 lows.
RES 4: $0.8649 – Low July 18 now resistance
RES 3: $0.8589 – High July 25
RES 2: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
RES 1: $0.8496 – Low Aug 4 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8457
SUP 1: $0.8422 – Low Aug 6
SUP 2: $0.8402 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8365 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $0.8342 – Monthly Low Mar 3
The correction from 2014 highs last week saw the AUD/NZD find support ahead of the NZ$1.0924 low from Aug 1. Bears need a close below to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus to the key DMAs noted in the NZ$1.0828-1.0855 region. Overall bears need a close below NZ$1.0824 to end bullish hopes and see the 2014 lows targeted once more. Bulls need a close above Friday’s high to ease bearish pressure and fresh 2014 highs to confirm bullish focus.
RES 4: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1055 – 2014 high Aug 6
RES 2: NZ$1.1012 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0969 – High Aug 8
LPRICE: NZ$1.0947
SUP 1: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0848 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 – Low July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0767 – Low July 18
Following Friday’s sharp bounce from just short of the 200-DMA the AUD/JPY consolidated below initial resistance in a narrow range Monday. Bears are looking for a close below Monday’s Y94.53 low to reconfirm bearish focus and to add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above Y94.91 to ease bearish pressure and above Y95.85 to end bearish hopes and target 2014 highs. Worth noting the last close below the 200-DMA was mid-March.
RES 4: Y95.85 – High Aug 5
RES 3: Y95.57 – High Aug 6
RES 2: Y95.13 – Low Aug 6 now resistance
RES 1: Y94.91 – Hourly resistance Aug 7
LPRICE: Y94.65
SUP 1: Y94.53 – Low Aug 11
SUP 2: Y93.89 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y93.70 – Low May 29
SUP 4: Y93.12 – 55-WMA
The close above the 21-DMA Thursday was followed up with further topside Friday, extending gains above the falling daily channel base but remaining capped at the 55-DMA. The 55-DMA continued to cap Monday as daily studies approach O/B levels. Initial support is now noted at Monday’s A$1.4430 low with bears needing a close below to provide some breathing room. Overall bears need a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and target A$1.4209-65.
RES 4: A$1.4626 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4604 – Monthly High July 3
RES 2: A$1.4527 – Ichimoku cloud base
RES 1: A$1.4477 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4451
SUP 1: A$1.4430 – Low Aug 11
SUP 2: A$1.4381 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
