Fresh 2 month lows continued Friday before abounce back above the 100-DMA ($0.9325) although the pair failed to close above. Layers of resistance are noted in the $0.9338-0.9426 region including 55 & 21-DMAs with bulls needing a close above the $0.9426 level this week to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the 2014high. Bulls now need a close above $0.9338 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9381 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.9375 – Hourly support July 30 now resistance
RES 1: $0.9338 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: $0.9305
SUP 1: $0.9275 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9185 – 200-DMA
NZD/USD sell off continued to find support on Friday ahead of the 200-DMA with the pair bouncing a little as a result. Layers of resistance remain in the $0.8537-0.8649 region with bulls now needing a close above $0.8537 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8589 to shift focus back to the $0.8629-0.8722 region where the 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and falling daily trend line are located with a close above $0.8722 targeting 2014 highs
RES 4: $0.8629 – 100-DMA
RES 3: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
RES 2: $0.8560 – High July 28
RES 1: $0.8537 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: $0.8507
SUP 1: $0.8456 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
The correction lower from fresh 2014 highs continued Friday with rallies capped ahead of the NZ$1.0965 hourly resistance level. Immediate focus remains on the 200-DMA and then the layers of support noted in the NZ$1.0807-35 region which includes 21, 55 & 100-DMAs. Bulls now need a close above the NZ$1.0994 July 31 high to signal a false break lower last week but O/B studies are likely to limit topside follow through and add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1048 – 2014 high July 29
RES 2: NZ$1.0994 – High July 31
RES 1: NZ$1.0965 – Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: NZ$1.0935
SUP 1: NZ$1.0924 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0863 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0835 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: NZ$1.0824 – Low July 23
AUD/JPY is starting to look a little heavy with last week’s high falling short of the previous week’s high combined with Friday’s dip below the 21 & 55-DMAs and daily studies at modestly O/B levels and looking to correct lower. Bulls need a close above Friday’s high to regain control and reconfirm focus on the Y96.18-51 region. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm an end to bullish hopes and shift focus back to July monthly lows.
RES 4: Y97.15 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.18 – High July 24
RES 1: Y95.80 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: Y95.45
SUP 1: Y95.30 – Low Aug 1
SUP 2: Y95.17 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.93 – Low July 21
SUP 4: Y94.39 – Monthly Low July 18
EUR/AUD managed a close above the 21-DMA to end last week which provides bulls with a little hope but a close above Friday’s A$1.4447 high is needed to shift overall focus back to the $1.4602 July monthly highs. The A$1.4360 support is key to start the new week with bears needing a close below to reconfirm bearish pressure and target the 2014 low. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and providing few clues at present.
RES 4: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4512 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4466 – Previous daily channel base
RES 1: A$1.4447 – High Aug 1
LPRICE: A$1.4415
SUP 1: A$1.4360 – Low July 31
SUP 2: A$1.4321 – High July 25 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
