A relatively quiet overnight session has left the Dollar with an inside-day trading range and within striking distance of new high ground, but it will need to get past today’s critical events to have any chance ofextending this 3-week rally. Slumping global equity markets with few positive results from overnight sentimentdata have underpinned the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, but the market is clearly waiting on this morning’s Non-Farm Payroll number before making any strong move in either direction. Given the Dollar’s recent strength, thereis more vulnerability to a disappointing Payroll number, particularly with an ADP Employment miss and a rise inthe Challenger Job Cut number raising the possibility of a sub-200,000 reading. The Dollar has little margin forerror in order to avoid a wave of profit-taking and long liquidation heading into the weekend, so it may come downto a Non-Farm Payroll reading above 250,000 as well as no negative surprises from the rest of today’s US data tosee further gains from these already lofty price levels. Close-in support will be found at 81.47, but there may befurther downside beyond that level if the market does not receive a fairly positive view of the US Employmentsituation later this morning.
Technical Outlook: Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. Themarket’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the closehigher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at81.74. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance isaround 81.64 and 81.74, while 1st support hits today at 81.45 and below there at 81.36.