Currencies are diverging as we approach the NA session, a break from the trend of broad-based USD strength that we have observed throughout the week. SEK is outperforming on the back of a surprisingly strong mfg PMI release, as EUR maintains modest gains driven by an upside surprise to the French PMI. CAD, NZD and GBP are underperforming, with AUD and JPY also weak. US yields are elevated, while equity futures are down, leaning toward a continuation of Thurs-day’s selloff. Oil prices (WTI) are flirting with break below $97/bbl, trad-ing at levels not seen since early February, and copper is soft. Friday’s focus will remain squarely on the US outlook—specifically employment, inflation and growth as we look to the payrolls release (top chart, con-sensus at 230K vs. 288K previously), the unemployment rate (expected flat at 6.1%), and increasingly important measures of broader market health (underemployment, participation, hourly earnings, hours worked), along with PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation meas-ure). Additional releases include consumer income and spending, the Markit and ISM purchasing managers’ indices, and UMich consumer confidence—see p4 for a detailed calendar including consensus expecta-tions.
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