Fresh 2 month lows continued Thursday as the AUD/USD managed the first close below the 100-DMA since mid-March. Immediate focus remains on the $0.9186-0.9229 region where monthly lows and the 200-DMA are located. Layers of resistance have developed in the $0.9307-0.9425 region with bulls now needing a close above $0.9331 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and above $0.9425 to target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9425 – High July 25
RES 3: $0.9375 – Hourly support July 30 now resistance
RES 2: $0.9331 – Hourly resistance July 30
RES 1: $0.9307 – Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: $0.9298
SUP 1: $0.9279 – Monthly low July 31
SUP 2: $0.9229 – Monthly low June 3
SUP 3: $0.9202 – Monthly low May 2
SUP 4: $0.9186 – 200-DMA
NZD/USD sell off took a breather on Thursday as the NZD/USD found support ahead of the 200-DMA. The pair last closed below the 200-DMA in late Feb with a close below needed to add weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance are noted in the $0.8520-0.8649 region with bulls needing a close above $0.8520 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.8589 to shift focus back to the $0.8649-0.8722 region.
RES 4: $0.8629 – 100-DMA
RES 3: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
RES 2: $0.8560 – High July 28
RES 1: $0.8520 – Hourly resistance July 29
LPRICE: $0.8493
SUP 1: $0.8455 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 3: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
SUP 4: $0.8243 – Low Feb 20
The correction lower continued Thursday with the close below the NZ$1.0969 level confirming a break of the rising daily channel base and easing bullish pressure. Immediate focus shifts to the 200-DMA and then the layers of support noted in the NZ$1.0803-34 region which includes 21, 55 & 100-DMAs. Bulls now need a close above the NZ$1.0994 July 31 high to signal a false break lower but O/B studies are likely to limit topside follow through.
RES 4: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1048 – 2014 high July 29
RES 2: NZ$1.0994 – High July 31
RES 1: NZ$1.0965 – Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: NZ$1.0937
SUP 1: NZ$1.0867 – 200-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.0834 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0824 – Low July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0803 – 100-DMA
Wednesday’s rally fell short of last week’s highs with the pullback supported at the 21-DMA for now. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y94.94-95.33 region where 55 & 100-DMAs are located with overall focus returning to the Y94.39 July monthly low. While the 21-DMA supports bulls retain immediate focus on last week’s Y96.18 high and target 2014 highs overall.
RES 4: Y97.15 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.18 – High July 24
RES 1: Y95.71 – Hourly resistance July 31
LPRICE: Y95.54
SUP 1: Y95.47 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.33 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.13 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.93 – Low July 21
EUR/AUD continued to recover from last week’s 2014 lows with the pair now focused on the key A$1.4416-50 resistance region. Bulls need a close above this region to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 55-DMA and overall focus to the A$1.4604 July monthly high. While The A$1.4416-50 region caps bears hold out hope for a retest of 2014 lows with below A$1.4360 needed to reconfirm bearish focus.
RES 4: A$1.4520 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4450 – High July 22
RES 2: A$1.4442 – Falling daily channel top
RES 1: A$1.4416 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4400
SUP 1: A$1.4360 – Low July 31
SUP 2: A$1.4321 – High July 25 now support
SUP 3: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 4: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
