The failed rally that ran out of steam at the Bollinger band top Thursday is a concern for bulls in that it failed to test the 2014 high and was followed up with a close back below the 21-DMA on Friday. The $0.9312-61 region remains key support with bears needing a close below $0.9322 to hint at an end to bullish hopes with a close below the 100-DMA confirming and shifting focus to the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above last week’s high to regain control.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly high Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: $0.9474 – High July 24
RES 1: $0.9425 – Hourly resistance July 24
LPRICE: $0.9409
SUP 1: $0.9361 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9356 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
SUP 4: $0.9312 – 100-DMA
The sharp move lower for the NZD/USD was followed up with further losses to end last week that saw the pair close below the rising daily channel base off Feb/June monthly lows. Daily studies remain very O/S but the close below the channel base adds significant weight to the bearish case and sees immediate focus on the $0.8412-81 region. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.8719 – High July 21
RES 3: $0.8648 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8629 – 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
LPRICE: $0.8547
SUP 1: $0.8481 – Low June 9
SUP 2: $0.8453 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
Following the dip below the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0791) last week AUD/NZD broke above the 200-DMA with immediate focus on the NZ$1.1025-1.1035 region. A close above this region then sees focus shift to the trend line projection off Apr/June highs. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at NZ$1.0960 with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little whereas a close below the 200-DMA is needed to hint at a deeper correction.
RES 4: NZ$1.1154 – Rising trend line projection
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1035 – 2014 high June 4
RES 1: NZ$1.1014 – 55-WMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.1007
SUP 1: NZ$1.0960 – Hourly support July 25
SUP 2: NZ$1.0874 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0855 – Hourly support July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0825 – 55-DMA
Last week’s rally took a couple of backward steps to end the week with the the move lower continuing Monday before finding support at the 21-DMA and managing a relatively bullish close. Bears now need a close below the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to Y95.03 where 100-DMA and 21-WMAs are located. While the 21-DMA supports bulls target 2014 high with daily studies supportive of further topside.
RES 4: Y97.14 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.30 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y96.18 – High July 24
LPRICE: Y95.83
SUP 1: Y95.51 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.03 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.60 – Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Following fresh 2014 and 8 month lows for EUR/AUD last week the pair remained capped ahead of initial resitsance. Bears remain firmly focused on the A$1.4051-1.4130 support region with the main concern being O/S daily studies. Initial resistance remains in the A$1.4326-57 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4357 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and target A$1.4602.
RES 4: A$1.4441 – 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4385 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: A$1.4357 – High July 23
RES 1: A$1.4326 – High July 25
LPRICE: A$1.4277
SUP 1: A$1.4265 – Low July 25
SUP 2: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 3: A$1.4130 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
