The failed rally is a concern for bulls in that it failed to test the 2014 high and was followed up with a close back below the 21-DMA on Friday. The $0.9308-60 region remains key support this week with bears needing a close below the $0.9322 June 18 low to hint at an end to bullish hopes with a close below the 100-DMA confirming and shifting focus to the 200-DMA. Bulls need a close above last week’s high to regain control.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly high Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9530 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.9505 – 2014 high July 1
RES 1: $0.9471 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.9392
SUP 1: $0.9360 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9352 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
SUP 4: $0.9308 – 100-DMA
The move lower continued with further losses to end the week that saw the NZD/USD close below the rising daily channel base off Feb/June monthly lows. Daily studies remain at very O/S levels as a result but the close below the channel base adds significant weight to the bearish case and sees immediate focus shift to the $0.8412-81 region with the 200-DMA at $0.8453. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.8719 – High July 21
RES 3: $0.8649 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8628 – 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
LPRICE: $0.8553
SUP 1: $0.8481 – Low June 9
SUP 2: $0.8453 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
SUP 4: $0.8343 – Monthly Low Mar 3
Following the brief dip below the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0780) last week AUD/NZD broke sharply above the 200-DMA with immediate focus on the NZ$1.1025-1.1035 region. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at NZ$1.0950 with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little whereas a close below the 200-DMA is needed to hint at a deeper correction. Overall a close below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to July lows
RES 4: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1035 – 2014 high June 4
RES 1: NZ$1.1025 – 55-WMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0980
SUP 1: NZ$1.0950 – Hourly support July 24
SUP 2: NZ$1.0876 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0855 – Hourly support July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0823 – 55-DMA
Last week’s rally took a couple of backward steps to end the week with the AUD/JPY retesting initial support at Y95.59 on Friday. Bears need a close below the Y95.59 level to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y94.96-99 region where 100-DMA and 21-WMAs are located. While Y95.59 supports bulls retain focus on the 2014 high with daily studies supportive of further topside.
RES 4: Y97.10 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.28 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y96.18 – High July 24
LPRICE: Y95.60
SUP 1: Y95.59 – Hourly support July 23
SUP 2: Y94.99 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.60 – Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Following fresh 2014 lows for euro-aussie last week the EUR/AUD bounced a little Thursday while the Bollinger band base caught up. Bears remain firmly focused on the A$1.4051-1.4150 support region with the main concern being O/S daily studies. Initial resistance is noted in the A$1.4326-57 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4357 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end bearish hopes and target A$1.4602.
RES 4: A$1.4441 – 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4385 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: A$1.4357 – High July 23
RES 1: A$1.4326 – High July 25
LPRICE: A$1.4292
SUP 1: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 2: A$1.4150 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3864 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
