The initial move higher Thursday struggled at the Bollinger band top before drifting back towards the 21-DMA. Bears now need to see a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see focus shift to the key layers of support in the $0.9322-59 region. Overall a close below $0.9322 is needed to hint at a deeper correction with a close below the 100-DMA needed to add weight to the bearish case and target the 200-DMA
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly high Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9533 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.9505 – 2014 high July 1
RES 1: $0.9472 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.9414
SUP 1: $0.9401 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9359 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9349 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 4: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
NZD/USD headed sharply lower Thursday with it having broken back below the 55 & 100-DMAs before finding support just ahead of the rising daily channel base off Feb/June lows. Initial resistance is noted in the $0.8599-0.8650 region with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA needed to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to the 2014 high. Below the channel base targets the 200-DMA.
RES 4: $0.8719 – High July 21
RES 3: $0.8650 – 55-DMA
RES 2: $0.8627 – 100-DMA
RES 1: $0.8599 – Hourly resistance July 24
LPRICE: $0.8581
SUP 1: $0.8564 – Rising daily channel base Feb/June lows
SUP 2: $0.8481 – Low June 9
SUP 3: $0.8453 – 200-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8412 – Monthly Low June 4
Following the brief dip below the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0780) on Monday AUD/NZD broke sharply above the 200-DMA with immediate focus having shifted to the NZ$1.1025-1.1035 region. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at NZ$1.0950 with a close below needed to ease bullish pressure a little whereas a close below the 200-DMA is needed to hint at a deeper correction. Overall a close below the 55-DMA is needed to shift focus back to July lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.1226 – High Nov 29 2013
RES 3: NZ$1.1072 – High Dec 6 2013
RES 2: NZ$1.1035 – 2014 high June 4
RES 1: NZ$1.1025 – 55-WMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0983
SUP 1: NZ$1.0950 – Hourly support July 24
SUP 2: NZ$1.0880 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0855 – Hourly support July 23
SUP 4: NZ$1.0820 – 55-DMA
The rally that began with a bounce from the 100-DMA earlier in the week continued to head towards the 2014 high Thursday with it having consolidated above initial support. Bears need a close below the Y95.59 level to ease the current bullish pressure and shift immediate focus back to the Y94.96 support where 100-DMA and 21-WMAs are located. While Y95.59 supports immediate focus remains on the 2014 high with daily studies supportive of further topside.
RES 4: Y97.10 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high July 1
RES 2: Y96.28 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y96.18 – High July 24
LPRICE: Y95.87
SUP 1: Y95.59 – Hourly support July 23
SUP 2: Y94.96 – 100-DMA, 21-WMA
SUP 3: Y94.60 – Ichimoku cloud base
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Fresh 2014 and 8 month lows continued for EUR/AUD with bears firmly focused on the A$1.4051-1.4150 support region. Daily studies are approaching O/S levels but the current bearish pressure is too strong to argue with. Initial resistance is noted in the A$1.4312-57 region with bulls needing a close above A$1.4357 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 21-DMA is now needed to end bearish hopes and target A$1.4602.
RES 4: A$1.4449 – 21-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4385 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: A$1.4357 – High July 23
RES 1: A$1.4312 – Low July 22 now resistance
LPRICE: A$1.4291
SUP 1: A$1.4209 – 2014 Low July 24
SUP 2: A$1.4150 – Weekly Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
SUP 4: A$1.3864 – Monthly Low July 10 2013
