Immediate focus remains on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at Krw1036.9 with initial support at Thursday’s Krw1025.5 low. Tuesday’s close above the 55-DMA was the first since late March with bears now needing a close below Krw1025.5 to ease bullish pressure and a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to the 2014 low. Layers of resistance remain in the Krw1036.9-1051.5 region including Fibo levels and key moving averages.
Wednesday’s failure at the 21-DMA and bearish close was followed up with a sharp fall Thursday and also remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA Friday with focus remaining on the 2014 low. The key concern for bears remains correcting O/S daily studies. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and a close above Myr3.2205 to end bearish hopes and shift focus to the Myr3.2399-3.2423 region where key moving averages are located.
USD/CNH consolidated below the 21 & 100-DMAs to end the week but remained supported ahead of layers of support in the Cnh6.1913-95 region. The Bollinger band base remains at Cnh6.1913 and with closes below a rarity follow through below this level may be limited. Layers of resistance also remain in the Cnh6.2172-6.2250 region with bulls needing a close above the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus to Cnh6.2361 and overall focus to Cnh6.2632-6.2714
USD/PHP managed a brief pop above the 21-DMA to end the week but remained capped ahead of the falling daily trend line. Layers of resistance remain in the Php43.653-774 region with bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to the Php44.129-188 region where the 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bears need a close below Php43.390 to reconfirm bearish focus and target the 200-WMA.
Layers of support remain clustered Thb32.01-07 including the weekly Bollinger band base and 55-WMA with dollar-thb having found support ahead of this region last week. Dollar-thb has not closed below the 55-WMA since late May 2013 with a close below expected to add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need to see a close above Thb32.22 to ease bearish pressure and a close above the 200-DMA and shift focus to layers of resistance in the Thb23.38-54 region.