FX Outlooks & Strategies

EUR/USD: Our bearish view was vindicated as the market has resumed its choppy decline towards medium-term targets near 1.3325 (100-week average and weekly cloud base). Near term, bearish pressure remains while below 1.3575. A break below the year-to-date low near 1.3475 would likely catalyze further selling interest.

USD/JPY: The 200-day average is capping price near 102.00 and a small Doji formed beneath this level suggested turning neutral in the short-term. A break below 101.30 in the least is needed to turn bearish, in line with our medium-term choppy downside bias (towards 100).

GBP/USD: Strong volumes near 1.7200 peak warns of selling interest around the area as the market likely stays range bound between 1.7050 and 1.7200 over the coming sessions. It would take break below 1.7050 to warn of deeper pullback and we are patiently awaiting stronger directional signals. Medium term, targets remain higher towards 1.7340 and beyond.

AUD/USD: We are neutral in the short term while support in the 09320 underpins. An unexpected move below 0.9320 would signal further downside squeeze towards stronger support near 0.9200, which we expect to underpin our greater bullish view towards the 0.9505/25 area initially.

 

Barclays