EUR/USD: EURUSD is still trading at the very low end of the recent range. We expect pain below 1.3477 and sellers to be lined up above 1.3550; stay short. We are surprised that the pair didn’t trade lower on the news of the Malaysia jet being shot down in Eastern Ukraine, though.
USD/CHF, EUR/CHF: CHF buying from all sides yesterday has had limited reaction so far. This should continue into the weekend but we rather prefer wait patiently for levels to get long. Buy USDCHF below 0.8950 and add at 0.8930 with a stop at 0.8900, for 0.9000. EURCHF is a buy on any dip towards 1.2120, but sellers will most likely show up above 1.2160.
AUD/USD: AUDUSD initially slipped to 0.9336 following the risk selloff but has since been slowly grinding higher, driven by short-term position squaring on speculation of a China RRR cut. Price action remains very slow overall. We remain short AUDUSD; support lies at 0.9325 and resistance at 0.9415.
USD/JPY: USDJPY slipped to 101.09 early in Sydney as the market sold AUDJPY and EURJPY following lower risk overnight. The pair then found Japanese banks buying, likely for real money names, and headed up to 101.30. We saw a short squeeze to 101.415. Sell rallies in the pair, targeting 100.80.
UBS