The recovery from ahead of the key $0.9322 support continued on Thursday with the aussie having found support at the 55-DMA but remaining capped ahead of the 21-DMA. The $0.9400-56 resistance region remains key with bulls needing a close above $0.9408 to confirm a break of the channel top and 21-DMA, easing bearish pressure. Overall bulls look for a close above $0.9456 to shift focus to 2014 highs. Bears need a close below $0.9322 to end bullish hopes.
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9456 – High July 10, Bollinger band top
RES 1: $0.9408 – High July 11
LPRICE: $0.9352
SUP 1: $0.9352 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
SUP 3: $0.9279 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9266 – Monthly Low June 6
The selloff continued for the NZD/USD Thursday following the first close below the 21-DMA since early June. Immediate focus remains on layers of support in the $0.8593-0.8663 region which includes key moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. Bulls now need to see a close back above $0.8730 to ease bear pressure with a close above $0.8785 needed to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and target fresh 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10
RES 3: $0.8785 – Hourly support July 15 now resistance
RES 2: $0.8771 – Hourly resistance July 15
RES 1: $0.8730 – Hourly resistance July 16
LPRICE: $0.8675
SUP 1: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 2: $0.8642 – Low June 17
SUP 3: $0.8623 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8835
SUP 4: $0.8615 – 100-DMA
The close above the 21-DMA and falling daily channel top provided bulls with additional comfort when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S levels. The rally has so far remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA with layers of resistance remaining in the NZ$1.0809-1.0841 region including key moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, Bollinger band top & Ichimoku cloud base. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.0841 – Bollinger band top, Ichimoku cloud base
RES 3: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 2: NZ$1.0827 – 50.0% Fibonacci NZ$1.1030-1.0624
RES 1: NZ$1.0809 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0775
SUP 1: NZ$1.0756 – High July 16 now support
SUP 2: NZ$1.0734 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: NZ$1.0700 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 4: NZ$1.0641 – Low July 15
Thursday’s rally remained capped by the falling wedge top and 55-DMA both of which come in around the Y95.27 level. The selloff has seen the AUD/JPY closing below the 100-DMA (Y94.79) for the first time since mid-March, as well as confirming a break of the rising daily trend line off March monthly lows & adding weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus shifts to the Y94.26-54 region with overall focus remaining on the 200-DMA while the 21-DMA caps
RES 4: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 3: Y95.96 – High July 10
RES 2: Y95.59 – 21-DMA
RES 1: Y95.27 – Falling wedge top, 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y94.70
SUP 1: Y94.54 – 21-WMA
SUP 2: Y94.46 – Falling wedge base
SUP 3: Y94.26 – Low June 2
SUP 4: Y93.75 – 200-DMA
After having pulled back from the Bollinger band top Tuesday the EUR/AUD has now bounced from marginally below the Bollinger band base Thursday. Further broad range trading within the A$1.4359-1.4602 range that has defined since mid-June is expected to continue. Bulls look for a close above A$1.4602 to shift immediate focus to the A$1.4777 May 26 high whereas bears look for a close below A$1.4359 to target A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly lows.
RES 4: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 3: A$1.4597 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4551 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: A$1.4484 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4457
SUP 1: A$1.4417 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
