AUD/USD bounced from ahead of the key $0.9322 support on Wednesday, confirming the significance of this level. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and rising daily channel base off 2014 lows. This would end bullish hopes and target the $0.9197-0.9279 region where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA ($0.9408) to ease bearish pressure and above $0.9456 to target 2014 highs
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9456 – High July 10
RES 1: $0.9408 – High July 11
LPRICE: $0.9367
SUP 1: $0.9322 – Low June 18, 61.8% Fibo $0.9208-0.9505
SUP 2: $0.9279 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9233 – Low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9197 – 200-DMA
After pausing at the 21-DMA ($0.8758) on Tuesday, the NZD/USD is closing below the 21-DMA for the first time since early June which adds weight to the bearish case. Immediate focus shifts to the layers of support in the $0.8593-0.8663 region which includes key moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. Bulls now need to see a close back above $0.8785 to signal a false break of the 21-DMA and ease the current bearish focus.
RES 4: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10
RES 3: $0.8785 – Hourly support July 15 now resistance
RES 2: $0.8771 – Hourly resistance July 15
RES 1: $0.8730 – Hourly resistance July 16
LPRICE: $0.8707
SUP 1: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 2: $0.8642 – Low June 17
SUP 3: $0.8623 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8835
SUP 4: $0.8612 – 100-DMA
The close above both the 21-DMA and falling daily channel top provide bulls with additional comfort when combined with daily studies correcting from O/S levels. Layers of resistance remain in the NZ$1.0774-1.0837 region including key moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. Bears now need to see a close back below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below NZ$1.0700 is needed to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 3: NZ$1.0827 – 50.0% Fibonacci NZ$1.1030-1.0624
RES 2: NZ$1.0809 – 55-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0774 – 100-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0750
SUP 1: NZ$1.0733 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.0700 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 3: NZ$1.0641 – Low July 15
SUP 4: NZ$1.0623 – Low July 10
AUD/JPY continues to find support ahead of layers of support Y94.70-93 with resistance noted Y95.38-96. Of some concern to bears are the modestly O/S daily studies looking to correct higher but in saying that, bulls need to see a close above Y95.96 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 2014 highs. While the Y95.38-96 region caps bears retain immediate focus on the Y94.70-93 region with a break lower targeting the 200-DMA (Y93.74).
RES 4: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 3: Y95.96 – High July 10
RES 2: Y95.64 – 21-DMA
RES 1: Y95.38 – Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: Y95.26
SUP 1: Y94.93 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 2: Y94.75 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.70 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Oscillation around the 21-DMA (A$1.4483) continued Wednesday with the Bollinger band top capping the rally. The bearish close just above the rising daily channel base sees bears in control and targeting a break lower that shifts focus to the 2014 low. The Bollinger band base comes in around A$1.4415 and may initially limit follow through below this level. Bulls need to see the channel base hold and a close above A$1.4551 to ease bearish pressure
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4606 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4551 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4435
SUP 1: A$1.4430 – Low July 10, Daily channel base
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
