AUD/USD remained capped ahead of the $0.9408 as it again struggled at the 21-DMA ($0.9400) with the dip below the rising daily channel base ($0.9377) finding support at the 55-DMA. The $0.9322-49 region remains key support with bears needing a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and rising daily channel base off 2014 lows. This would end bullish hopes and target the $0.9198-0.9268 region where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located.
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9456 – High July 10
RES 1: $0.9408 – High July 11
LPRICE: $0.9370
SUP 1: $0.9349 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 3: $0.9271 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Low June 3
The break below the previous $0.8775 support has eased the previous bullish pressure despite finding support at the 21-DMA and rising daily trend line. Bears need a close below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see focus shift to the $0.8593-0.8663 support region where the 55 & 100-DMA’s are located. Initial resistance is noted at hourly support from Tuesday but the $0.8835-45 region remains key.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 2: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10
RES 1: $0.8785 – Hourly support July 15 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.8771
SUP 1: $0.8756 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
Bulls take comfort in the hesitation ahead of last week’s low as daily studies look to correct from O/B levels and higher daily highs continue. In saying that, layers of resistance remain NZ$1.0733-1.0837 with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0733 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Bears currently remain focused on the 2014 lows with a close below NZ$1.0623 needed to confirm bearish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0733 – High July 7, Falling daily channel top
RES 1: NZ$1.0700 – High July 10
LPRICE: NZ$1.0684
SUP 1: NZ$1.0641 – Low July 15
SUP 2: NZ$1.0623 – Low July 10
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0520 – Falling daily channel base
AUD/JPY finds support ahead of layers of support Y94.67-00 with layers of resistance Y95.65-96. Of some concern to bears are the modestly O/S daily studies looking to correct higher but in saying that, bulls need to see a close above Y95.96 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 2014 highs. While the Y95.65-96 region caps bears retain immediate focus on the Y94.67-00 region with a break lower targeting the 200-DMA (Y93.72).
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.96 – High July 10
RES 1: Y95.65 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y95.30
SUP 1: Y95.00 – Low July 11
SUP 2: Y94.70 – Low July 10, 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.67 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
EUR/AUD continues to chop around the 21-DMA (A$1.4486) with the close below of some concern to bulls. Bears need to see a close below last week’s A$1.4430 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, assert dominance and target fresh 2014 lows. While A$1.4430 supports bulls will target the A$1.4602-15 region where the short term channel top and 55-DMA are located with a close above shifting focus to the A$1.4821-80 region.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4615 – 55-DMA, Daily channel top
RES 2: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4552 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4473
SUP 1: A$1.4430 – Low July 10, Daily channel base
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
