AUD/USD continues to look a little heavy with it struggling at the 21-DMA ($0.9401) to start the new week. The $0.9322-65 region remains key support this week with bears needing a close below $0.9322 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and rising daily channel base off 2014 lows. This would end bullish hopes and target the $0.9198-0.9268 region where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bulls need a close above $0.9456 to retain control and target fresh 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9456 – High July 10
RES 1: $0.9408 – High July 11
LPRICE: $0.9389
SUP 1: $0.9361 – Low July 10
SUP 2: $0.9347 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9271 – 100-DMA
Daily and weekly Bollinger band tops are seen coming in around $0.8845 today and with closes above a rarity, follow through above this level is expected to be limited. In saying that, bears need a close below $0.8775 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA ($0.8751), ending bullish hopes and seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.8593-0.8663 region where 55 & 100-DMA’s are located.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8845 – Daily & Weekly Bollinger band tops
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10
LPRICE: $0.8800
SUP 1: $0.8775 – Hourly support Low July 8
SUP 2: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
AUD/NZD has bounced back towards the daily channel base that it broke below last week with bulls looking to O/S daily studies in the hope of a bounce. Layers of resistance remain in the NZ$1.0733-1.0837 region with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0733 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure. Bears currently remain focused on the 2014 lows with a close above NZ$1.0837 needed to end bearish hopes and below NZ$1.0623 to reconfirm bearish pressure
RES 4: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0733 – High July 7
RES 1: NZ$1.0700 – High July 10
LPRICE: NZ$1.0671
SUP 1: NZ$1.0623 – Low July 10
SUP 2: NZ$1.0553 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The rally and relatively bullish close to start the new week has eased the bearish pressure a little with immediate focus now shifting to the Y95.67-96 region. Bulls need a close above Y95.96 to end bearish hopes and see immediate focus shift to the 2014 high. Layers of support remain in the Y94.66-00 region with bears needing a close below Y94.66 to reconfirm bearish pressure and see focus shift to the 200-DMA (Y93.70).
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.96 – High July 10
RES 1: Y95.67 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y95.41
SUP 1: Y95.00 – Low July 11
SUP 2: Y94.70 – Low July 10, 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.66 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
EUR/AUD continues to chop around the 21-DMA (A$1.4484) but fails to close below which provides bulls with a glimmer of hope. Bears need to see a close below last week’s A$1.4430 low to assert dominance and target fresh 2014 lows. While A$1.4430 supports bulls will target the A$1.4602-31 region where the short term channel top and 55-DMA are located with a close above shifting focus to the A$1.4821-80 region.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4623 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4552 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4491
SUP 1: A$1.4430 – Low July 10
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
