The rally lacked follow through on Thursday but then again so has the sell off with the AUD/USD recovering from just below the previous $0.9368 support. The $0.9322-42 region remains key support for the aussie with bears looking for a close below $0.9322 to end bullish hopes and see the immediate focus shift to the $0.9198-0.9264 region. While the $0.9322 level supports, bulls will continue to target a retest of the 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly High Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 2: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: $0.9456- High July 10
LPRICE: $0.9382
SUP 1: $0.9361 – Low July 10
SUP 2: $0.9342 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9264 – 100-DMA
NZD/USD traded at marginal fresh 2014 highs on Thursday with the relatively bullish close favouring further topside that targets the $0.8920 projection. Daily and weekly Bollinger bands may limit topside follow through above $0.8847 for now. In saying that, bears need a close below $0.8775 to ease the bullish pressure and below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.8593-0.8663 region.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8847 – Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8835 – 2014 High July 10, Bollinger band top
LPRICE: $0.8820
SUP 1: $0.8775 – Hourly support Low July 8
SUP 2: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top last week sees overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low with bears dominating. Fresh 4 month lows overnight confirm bearish focus on the 2014 low with a close above NZ$1.0733 needed to ease bearish pressure and a close above NZ$1.0837 to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 3: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0733 – High July 7
LPRICE: NZ$1.0645
SUP 1: NZ$1.0623 – Low July 10
SUP 2: NZ$1.0575 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
After having remained confined to a Y95.16-86 region the past week AUD/JPY initially spiked above Y95.86 before heading sharply lower, only to find support ahead of the 100-DMA. The move lower lacked follow through with the pair recovering to close back around the Bollinger band base (Y95.19). Despite the lack of follow through the break lower sees bears focused on the Y94.55-70 region where the 100-DMA and Ichimoku cloud top are noted.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.26 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: Y95.96 – High July 10
LPRICE: Y95.20
SUP 1: Y94.70 – Low July 10
SUP 2: Y94.63 – 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.55 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
EUR/AUD remains little changed on the day with the rally capped at the Bollinger band top before reversing sharply lower. The dip below the A$1.4450 previous support is of some concern to bulls but the close above the 21-DMA albeit marginally keeps bullish hopes alive. With the Bollinger bands noted at A$1.4389 & A$1.4562 continued range trading within these limits are expected to contain Friday.
RES 4: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 3: A$1.4639 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4602 – High July 3
RES 1: A$1.4562 – Bollinger band top
LPRICE: A$1.4480
SUP 1: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 2: A$1.4386 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
