After a downside extension overnight the September Dollar index has managed to recover. While theUS economic report slate today is thin, it is possible that the Dollar is garnering some short covering action off afavorable kick off to the US earnings cycle but it is also possible that some traders are anticipating some type ofhawkish dialogue from the FOMC meeting minutes. However, the press is correct in pointing out that the FOMCmeeting minutes were compiled before the results of the latest payrolls were known to the open market. On theother hand, it might be incorrect to assume that the Fed wasn’t privy to the potential for a positive June payrollresult. However, the Dollar is clearly being limited by lingering growth fears and by noted strength in Treasurieswhich in turn gives legitimacy to the fears of sub-par US growth. Ultimately we would not expect the Fed toprovide the Dollar with sustained strength and it could be difficult for the September Dollar to avoid an eventualretest of the sub-80.00 level.
Technical Outlook: The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-termtrend could be turning down. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support amove higher if resistance levels are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close overthe 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next upsideobjective is 80.40. The next area of resistance is around 80.30 and 80.40, while 1st support hits today at 80.16and below there at 80.10.