The correction higher from last week’s test of the 55-DMA continued on Wednesday but the AUD/USD has been unable to take out the $0.9430 resistance level thus far. Bulls continue to look for a close above the $0.9430 resistance to end bearish hopes and shift immediate focus to the 2014 high. Bears now need to see the $0.9430 level cap and a subsequent break below the $0.9322 support to see immediate focus shift to the $0.9198-0.9256 region
RES 4: $0.9543 – Monthly High Nov 6 2013
RES 3: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 2: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 1: $0.9430 – Hourly support July 3 now resistance
LPRICE: $0.9412
SUP 1: $0.9382 – Low July 9
SUP 2: $0.9365 – Low July 8
SUP 3: $0.9337 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9322 – Low June 18
The bounce from ahead of the 21-DMA Monday gathered momentum on Wednesday with the kiwi trading at fresh 2014 highs for the second consecutive day. Bullish focus remains on the $0.8840-0.8920 region with bears needing a close below $0.8714 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, ending bullish hopes and seeing immediate focus shift to the $0.8583-0.8663 region. The daily Slow Stochastic study remains at O/B levels but bullish strength cant be argued with.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8849 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8828 – 2014 High July 9
LPRICE: $0.8823
SUP 1: $0.8775 – Hourly support Low July 8
SUP 2: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top last week sees overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low with bears dominating. Layers of resistance are noted NZ$1.0754-1.0837 with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0837 to shift overall focus back to the June monthly highs and immediate focus to the 200-DMA. For now bears have the May monthly low firmly in the sights.
RES 4: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 3: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance, 100-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0683 – Hourly resistance July 9
LPRICE: NZ$1.0664
SUP 1: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0642 – Low Mar 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
AUD/JPY continues to trade sideways with the Y95.16 & Y95.86 levels which remain key this week. Bears favour a break of the Y95.16 support while the 21-DMA caps with immediate focus then shifting to the Y94.26-54 region. Bulls need to see a close above Y95.86 to confirm dominance and shift immediate focus back to the 2014 high. A concern to bears is the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Y95.27) with closes below a rarity
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.86 – Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y95.68 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: Y95.64
SUP 1: Y95.23 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.60 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
The failure to make headway above A$1.4600 last week has seen the EUR/AUD trading heavy with it dipping back below the 21-DMA again Wednesday. Bears continue to look for a close below A$1.4450 which supported again Wednesday, to confirm an easing of bearish pressure with immediate focus then shifting to the 2014 and June monthly low. Bulls need a close above A$1.4602 to confirm bullish dominance and see immediate focus shift to the 55-DMA.
RES 4: A$1.4837 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4647 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4602 – High July 3
LPRICE: A$1.4491
SUP 1: A$1.4450 – Low July 8
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
