The 55-DMA has supported to start the new week with the AUD/USD bouncing back towards the $0.9384-99 region as a result. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift overall focus back to the fresh 2014 highs set last week. While the 21-DMA caps bears favour a break of the $0.9322-37 region with a close below adding weight to the bearish case targeting the $0.9198-0.9252 region.
RES 4: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 3: $0.9430 – Hourly support July 3 now resistance
RES 2: $0.9399 – 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.9384 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: $0.9372
SUP 1: $0.9337 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 3: $0.9252 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Monthly Low June 3
NZD/USD has bounced from a marginal dip below the previous $0.8717 support but has remained capped ahead of the 2014 highs. The failure ahead of 2014 highs last week combined with gently correcting O/B studies is hinting at a break lower. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to the 200-DMA. Layers of support are noted $0.8578-0.8863 with a close below needed to end bullish hopes
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 2: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
RES 1: $0.8773 – High July 3
LPRICE: $0.8761
SUP 1: $0.8714 – Low July 7
SUP 2: $0.8698 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8647 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8793
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top last week sees overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low with bears dominating. Initial resistance is now noted at Friday’s high. Layers of resistance are noted in the NZ$1.0754-1.0837 region with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0837 to shift overall focus back to the June monthly highs and immediate focus to the 200-DMA.
RES 4: NZ$1.0915 – 200-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0837 – High July 2
RES 2: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance, 100-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
LPRICE: NZ$1.0701
SUP 1: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0642 – Low Mar 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
AUD/JPY continues to trade sideways with the Y95.16 & Y95.86 levels seen as key this week. Bears favour a break of the Y95.16 support while the 21-DMA caps with immediate focus then shifting to the Y94.26-54 region. Bulls need to see a close above Y95.86 to confirm dominance and shift immediate focus back to the 2014 high. A concern to bears is the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Y95.24) with closes below a rarity.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.86 – Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y95.68 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: Y95.57
SUP 1: Y95.24 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.54 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Last Thursday’s close above A$1.4552 confirmed a break of the 21-DMA & falling daily trend line, shifting immediate focus to the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support to the bullish case for a continuation higher that now has the 100 & 200-DMA’s in its sights. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: A$1.4852 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4658 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4602 – High July 3
LPRICE: A$1.4512
SUP 1: A$1.4472 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
