Wednesday’s correction lower from ahead of fresh 2014 highs gathered momentum Thursday before finding support just above the 55-DMA to end the week. Overall focus is on the key $0.9198-0.9233 region. Immediate focus is now on the $0.9322 support with a close below adding weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance are now noted with bulls needing a close above $0.9384 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.9430 to shift focus back to 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.9505 – 2014 High July 1
RES 3: $0.9468 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: $0.9430 – Hourly support July 3 now resistance
RES 1: $0.9384 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: $0.9364
SUP 1: $0.9336 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 3: $0.9249 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Monthly Low June 3
NZD/USD continued to struggle ahead of the 2014 high last week and combined with a falling Bollinger band top and an O/B Slow Stochastic study could be hinting at a correction. In saying that, bears need a close below $0.8717 to confirm a break of the channel, easing bullish pressure and seeing the immediate focus shift to the $0.8641-63 region. While $0.8717 supports bulls target $0.8840-0.8920.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 2: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
RES 1: $0.8773 – High July 3
LPRICE: $0.8742
SUP 1: $0.8717 – Low July 3
SUP 2: $0.8685 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8647 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8413-0.8793
The correction lower from ahead of the 55-DMA and falling daily channel top sees overall focus having shifted to retests of the 2014 low. Initial resistance is now noted at Friday’s high. Immediate focus has shifted to the NZ$1.0642-48 region with bulls now needing a close above $1.0754 to ease bearish pressure and a close above resistance clustered around NZ$1.0834 to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to the June monthly high.
RES 4: NZ$1.0831 – 55-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0784 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
RES 2: NZ$1.0754 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 1: NZ$1.0717 – High July 4
LPRICE: NZ$1.0701
SUP 1: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 2: NZ$1.0642 – Low Mar 27
SUP 3: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
SUP 4: NZ$1.0492 – 2014 Low Jan 24
The pullback from ahead of 2014 highs continued last week with the close below the 21-DMA (Y95.80) adding weight to the bearish case and bears initially targeting the Y95.16 low. Bulls now need to see a close above the Y96.18 level to shift focus back to the 2014 highs. While Y96.18 caps bears look for a break of the Y95.16 support to see immediate focus shift lower to the Y94.29-50 region.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.18 – Hourly resistance July 2
RES 2: Y95.86 – Low July 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y95.68 – Hourly resistance July 3
LPRICE: Y95.60
SUP 1: Y95.24 – 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.65 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Y94.50 – 100-DMA
After having remained capped ahead of the A$1.4552 resistance level for the majority of June the pair headed higher last Thursday with the close above A$1.4552 confirming a break of the 21-DMA & falling daily trend line shifting immediate focus to the 55-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to add support to the bullish case for a continuation higher that now has the 100 & 200-DMA’s in its sights. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA.
RES 4: A$1.4879 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4858 – 100-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 1: A$1.4663 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4516
SUP 1: A$1.4482 – 21-DMA
SUP 2: A$1.4399 – Low July 1
SUP 3: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 4: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
