USD/JPY Analysis

JPY opened at Y101.77 this morning in Asia and euro-yen started at Y139.01. Early dealings were muted with dollar-yen holding a Y101.76/79 range while the cross also chugged along on either side of Y139.00. Dollar-yen demand began to pick up a few minutes before Japanese stocks opened, and the pair got up to Y101.86. It turned back a bit after that but encountered fresh demand from Japanese names for the Tokyo fix. Dollar-yen rebounded to a Y101.95 high after the fix as bids continued and as the US dollar gained vs the aussie. Euro-yen also rose in tandem, and traded a high of Y139.18. Dollar-yen continued to chip away at the rumored offers surrounding Y102.00 but the paireventually turned back again as the cross also retreated ahead of some key event risks later today including the ECB meeting and US non-farm payrolls data. Dollar-yen was last at Y101.84 with the cross at Y139.01. Support has developed on the hourlies at Y101.73 but bears need to see a close below the Y101.39 hourly support from Tuesday to regain control and reignite talk of a Y100.77-82 test. Stops are noted above Y102.00, below Y101.30 and more importantly below Y101.20 and Y100.70 today.