Monday’s bounce has been followed up with fresh 2014 and fresh 9 month highs with immediate focus having shifted to the $0.9536-49 region. Initial support is now noted in the $0.9444-61 region with bears needing a close back below $0.9444 to ease the current bullish pressure. Daily studies are heading higher with room to move before O/S becomes an issue. The only limiting factor is the close above the upper Bollinger which are usually unsustainable.
RES 4: $0.9684 – 100-WMA
RES 3: $0.9622 – High Oct 28 2013
RES 2: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 1: $0.9536 – Rising daily channel top
LPRICE: $0.9489
SUP 1: $0.9461 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: $0.9444 – Hourly support July 1
SUP 3: $0.9384 – 21-DMA, Rising daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.9334 – 55-DMA
The move higher for the NZD/USD Tuesday has again stalled ahead of the 2014 high set last week and combined with O/B daily studies could be hinting at a correction. In saying that, bears continue to look for a close below $0.8727 to ease bullish pressure whereas a close below the $0.8642 support is needed to hint at a deeper correction. While $0.8727 supports bulls target 2014 highs and the $0.8840-0.8920 region above.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8876 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 1: $0.8793 – 2014 High June 27
LPRICE: $0.8775
SUP 1: $0.8727 – Low June 30
SUP 2: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 3: $0.8642 – Low June 17, 21-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8611 – 55-DMA
The close above the 100-DMA has eased the previous bearish pressure and combined with O/S daily studies looking to correct is hinting at higher levels. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to add further support to the bullish case with overall focus having shifted to the NZ$1.0911-37 region and the 200-DMA noted at NZ$1.0928. Bears now need to see a close below NZ$1.0784 to ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0708 to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: NZ$1.0911 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 3: NZ$1.0859 – 21-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0839 – 55-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0824 – High June 23
LPRICE: NZ$1.0815
SUP 1: NZ$1.0784 – Hourly support July 1
SUP 2: NZ$1.0734 – Low July 1
SUP 3: NZ$1.0708 – Low June 27
SUP 4: NZ$1.0658 – Bollinger band base
The bounce from the 55-DMA Monday was followed up with a sharp move higher Tuesday that has come within a pip of the 2014 high. Bullish focus now dominates with bulls looking for fresh 2014 highs and a relatively bullish close that will see focus shift to the Y98.16-99.06 region last seen back in May 2013. Bears now look for a close below the Y95.88 level that previously capped to ease the current bullish pressure.
RES 4: Y99.06 – High May 28 2013
RES 3: Y98.16 – High May 29 2013
RES 2: Y97.36 – High June 3 & 4 2013
RES 1: Y96.51 – 2014 High Apr 4
LPRICE: Y96.40
SUP 1: Y95.88 – Hourly support July 1
SUP 2: Y95.16 – Low June 30
SUP 3: Y94.39 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
Despite recently closing marginally above the falling daily trend line and 21-DMA the EUR/AUD remained capped ahead of the June 5 high. The failure to take out A$1.4552 has seen bearish focus remain with bears initially targeting the 2014 low and then the Nov 2013 monthly low while A$1.4552 caps. Bulls need a close above A$1.4552 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and shift overall focus to the 200-DMA (A$1.4878).
RES 4: A$1.4877 – 200-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4749 – High June 2
RES 2: A$1.4687 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4552 – High June 5
LPRICE: A$1.4401
SUP 1: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 2: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013, Bollinger band base
SUP 3: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
