The Dollar initially forged a fresh downside breakout overnight but it was able to recover back abovethis week’s lows. We suspect that the Dollar was able to recover from its initial weakness because the flow ofeconomic data from outside of the US overnight showed mostly soft results. Euro zone consumer confidencedeclined again, while UK 1st quarter GDP was unchanged from a prior estimate. Perhaps the Dollar caught a bidbecause of warnings from Russia to Ukraine after the Ukraine strengthened ties with the EU through a series offree trade agreements. While Putin has shown cooperation with the EU to enforce a cease fire, it is unclear ifseeing the Ukraine move toward the EU in trade agreements will alter Russia’s handling of the Ukraine situationagain. Taking a step back, the charts in the Dollar look patently negative and the flow of US data this week hardlydiscourages more downside action ahead.
Technical Outlook: Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may bedrying up soon. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downsideobjective is 80.04. The next area of resistance is around 80.38 and 80.53, while 1st support hits today at 80.14and below there at 80.04.