The onus is on the Dollar bulls to prove that more downside action can be avoided on the charts today. However, given estimates for today’s scheduled data flows, one might expect the Dollar to see only temporarysupport from the data. Unfortunately for the Dollar bulls, US scheduled data has frequently disappointed the tradeover the last 6 months and therefore it is difficult to argue against more lower-highs and lower-low action ahead inthe Greenback. The most important US data point this morning is likely to be initial claims, but Personal Incomeand Personal Spending might also be critical to the action in the currency markets. Expectations for claims call fora minimal decline, while Personal Spending and Income are both expected to have gained +0.4%. Down trendchannel resistance in the September Dollar is seen at 80.43 and it could take a rise above that level in the face ofthe scheduled data to alter what appears to be a downtrend pattern in the Greenback.
Technical Outlook: The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-termtrend could be turning down. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. A negativesignal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market setup is somewhatnegative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 80.00. The next areaof resistance is around 80.40 and 80.54, while 1st support hits today at 80.13 and below there at 80.00.