AUD/USD extended gains following on from Wednesday’s bounce from the 21-DMA. Initial support is noted at $0.9396 with bears needing a close below to ease the current bullish pressure a little. Layers of support remain in the $0.9322-51 region with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21 & 55-DMA’s and shift focus lower to the $0.9197-0.9233 where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bulls target 2014 highs while the $0.9197-0.9233 region supports.
RES 4: $0.9622 – High Oct 28 2013
RES 3: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 2: $0.9461 – 2014 high Apr 10
RES 1: $0.9431 – High June 24
LPRICE: $0.9410
SUP 1: $0.9396 – Low June 26
SUP 2: $0.9360 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Low June 3
Fresh 2014 and 3 year highs for the NZD/USD see immediate focus shift to the 0.8831-40 region where the 21 day upper Bollinger band and the 2011 high are located. Layers of support have developed on the hourlies with initial support noted at $0.8754. Bears need to see a close below the $0.8727 hourly support ease the current bullish pressure whereas a close below the $0.8642 June 17 low is needed to hint at a deeper correction that then targets the 200-DMA
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8840 – 2011 High 1 Aug 2011
RES 2: $0.8831 – Bollinger band top
RES 1: $0.8788 – 2014 High June 26
LPRICE: $0.8784
SUP 1: $0.8754 – Hourly support June 26
SUP 2: $0.8727 – Hourly support June 26
SUP 3: $0.8663 – Low June 25
SUP 4: $0.8642 – Low June 17
AUD/NZD confirmed a break of the channel base with a bearish close below on Thursday. Immediate focus now shifts to the NZ$1.0642-48 region with bulls now needing a close above Thursday’s NZ$1.0771 high to confirm an easing of bearish pressure while a close above the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0842) is needed to end bearish hopes and hint at move back to the NZ$1.1020-30 region. The only concern for bears are O/S daily studies.
RES 4: NZ$1.0824 – High June 23
RES 3: NZ$1.0791 – 100-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0771 – High June 26
RES 1: NZ$1.0744 – Hourly resistance June 26
LPRICE: NZ$1.0761
SUP 1: NZ$1.0688 – Bollinger band base
SUP 2: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 3: NZ$1.0642 – Low May 27
SUP 4: NZ$1.0536 – Monthly Low Mar 12
AUD/JPY continues to bounce from dips below the 21-DMA (Y95.26) although bulls currently look for a close above Y95.83 to provide a little breathing room. The 55-DMA remains key support with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and shift immediate focus back to the Y94.26 level and overall focus back to the Y93.05 May monthly low. While the 55-DMA supports bulls target the Y96.32-51 region.
RES 4: Y96.51 – 2014 high Apr 4
RES 3: Y96.32 – High June 23
RES 2: Y96.09 – High June 24
RES 1: Y95.83 – High June 25
LPRICE: Y95.73
SUP 1: Y95.40 – Low June 26
SUP 2: Y95.22 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.26 – Low June 2, 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y93.74 – Low May 28
The rally that commenced Monday managed a brief spike above the key 21-DMA & falling trend line resistance Wednesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and see initial focus shift to the 55-DMA and overall focus to the 200-DMA. While the 21-DMA & falling daily trend line cap bears will retain immediate focus on fresh 2014 lows and overall focus on the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: A$1.4693 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4619 – High June 9
RES 2: A$1.4552 – High June 5
RES 1: A$1.4529 – 21-DMA, Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: A$1.4455
SUP 1: A$1.4417 – Low June 24
SUP 2: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 3: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
