The 21-DMA confirmed its significance as support on Wednesday with the bounce from just ahead of this support keeping bullish hopes alive. Layers of support remain in the $0.9322-51 region with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21 & 55-DMA’s and shift focus lower to the $0.9197-0.9233 where 100 & 200-DMA’s are located. Bulls now need to see a close above $0.9431 to provide breathing room and see 2014 highs retested.
RES 4: $0.9622 – High Oct 28 2013
RES 3: $0.9549 – High Nov 6
RES 2: $0.9461 – 2014 high Apr 10
RES 1: $0.9431 – High June 24
LPRICE: $0.9403
SUP 1: $0.9383 – Hourly support June 25
SUP 2: $0.9351 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9322 – Low June 18
SUP 4: $0.9233 – Low June 3
NZD/USD was unable to continue with the correction lower following Tuesday’s break and close below the short term rising daily channel with the pair bouncing back towards Monday’s high. The $0.8642 low from last week remains key support with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure with immediate focus then shifting to the 55-DMA and overall focus to the $0.8413-81 region. While $0.8642 supports bulls target 2014 highs.
RES 4: $0.8920 – 1.382 projection of $0.8413-0.8779
RES 3: $0.8805 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: $0.8779 – 2014 High May 6
RES 1: $0.8748 – High June 23
LPRICE: $0.8731
SUP 1: $0.8716 – Hourly support June 25
SUP 2: $0.8642 – Low June 17
SUP 3: $0.8604 – Hourly support June 12, 55-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8586 – 21-DMA
After having found support at the 100-DMA the AUD/NZD reversed sharply lower dipping below the long term rising daily channel base (NZ41.0760). Immediate focus shifts to the NZ$1.0732 support with bears needing a close below to confirm a break of the channel base and see immediate focus shift to the NZ$1.0642-48 region and overall focus to 2014 lows. Daily studies remain very O/S but bulls now need to see a close above NZ$1.0807 to ease bearish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.0892 – 21-DMA
RES 3: NZ$1.0875 – High June 13
RES 2: NZ$1.0844 – 55-DMA
RES 1: NZ$1.0807 – High June 25
LPRICE: NZ$1.0761
SUP 1: NZ$1.0732 – Low June 18
SUP 2: NZ$1.0716 – Bollinger band base
SUP 3: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 4: NZ$1.0642 – Low May 27
AUD/JPY managed a dip below the 21-DMA before bouncing from ahead of the 55-DMA with bulls taking a little comfort in the relatively bullish close. Key resistance remains in the Y96.09-51 region with the 21 day upper Bollinger band noted around the Y96.51 level. With closes above a rarity topside follow through on a break to fresh 2014 highs may be limited. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes.
RES 4: Y96.12 – High May 29
RES 3: Y96.51 – 2014 high Apr 4, Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y96.32 – High June 23
RES 1: Y96.09 – High June 24
LPRICE: Y95.74
SUP 1: Y95.55 – Hourly support June 25
SUP 2: Y95.22 – 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y94.26 – Low June 2
SUP 4: Y94.23 – 100-DMA
The rally from just ahead of the 2014 low managed a brief spike above the key 21-DMA & falling trend line Wednesday before a relatively bearish close. Bulls look for a close above to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and see initial focus shift to the 55-DMA and overall focus to the 200-DMA. While the 21-DMA & falling daily trend line cap bears will retain immediate focus on fresh 2014 lows and overall focus on the A$1.4051 Nov 2013 monthly low
RES 4: A$1.4777 – High May 26
RES 3: A$1.4698 – 55-DMA
RES 2: A$1.4619 – High June 9
RES 1: A$1.4538 – 21-DMA, Falling daily trend line
LPRICE: A$1.4490
SUP 1: A$1.4417 – Low June 24
SUP 2: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 3: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
