Surprisingly the Dollar hasn’t been able to benefit from slack Euro zone and German PMI results.Nonetheless, the data from Euro zone should underpin the Dollar, especially in the face of more new highs for themove in crude oil prices overnight. While soaring oil prices might be seen as a hindering the US economy,growing US oil independence might cushion the US from that adversity. The Dollar is expected to get a minor liftfrom Existing home sales figures, but the jury is out on the Chicago Fed National Activity index results due outearly this morning. In conclusion, the US looks to win by default in the early trade today especially with theSeptember Dollar index managing to rise back above its 100 day moving average. Initial resistance is seen at80.52 and support moves up to 80.315. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 17thfor US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 21,614 contracts, an increase of 21,550 contracts.The Commercial traders were net short 26,958 contracts, an increase of 21,119 contracts. The Non-reportabletraders were net long 5,344 contracts, a decrease of 430 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportablecombined traders held a net long position of 26,958 contracts. This represents an increase of 21,120 contracts inthe net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: The downside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average is a negativesignal. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s close below the 9-daymoving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a mildly bullish indicator that themarket closed over the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at 80.13. The next area ofresistance is around 80.56 and 80.71, while 1st support hits today at 80.27 and below there at 80.13.