• Having already exceeded the internal 76.4 % retreatment at 0.8005 quite a bit, chances of running into a straight extension towards 0.7755/44 (pivot/50 % on higher scale) have increased significantly.
• But as it is quite common that 76.4 % retracements are overshot we have to handle it with care as long as pivotal support at 0.7961 is not taken out. Above, the bounce risk remains quite high.
• For the latter to receive fresh support it would take two consecutive higher hourly closes of the lagging line above the cloud (currently at 0.7998), but in order to really dent the long-term downtrend it would take breaks above 0.8102/26/57 (daily trend/minor 38.2 %/pivot).
JP Morgan