With both German and Euro composite PMI results below expectations and the ECB suggesting that ratescan be expected to remain low until 2016, the path of least resistance is pointing downward in the Euro. Whilesoaring oil prices are likely to countervail deflationary pressures in the Euro zone, reports that Euro zonecompanies have continued to cut prices looks to combine with ongoing angst in Iraq, to set the stage for a declinein the September Euro back down toward the recent consolidation lows of 1.3541. The Commitments of TradersFutures and Options report as of June 17th for Euro showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 61,261contracts, an increase of 4,861 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 93,410 contracts, an increase of4,745 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 32,149 contracts, a decrease of 116 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 93,410 contracts. This representsan increase of 4,745 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action.The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negativeindicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 136.7275. The next area ofresistance is around 136.3650 and 136.7275, while 1st support hits today at 135.6550 and below there at135.3075.