The rally places thoughts of a correction on hold for now although bears will take comfort in the failure ahead of 2014 highs combined with correcting O/B daily studies that are showing divergence. Bears need to see a close below $0.9367 to confirm an easing o bearish pressure and a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and see focus shift back to the $0.9197-0.9233 region. Bulls need fresh 2014 highs to kick start bullish momentum.
RES 4: $0.9622 – High Oct 28
RES 3: $0.9549 – High Nov 6, 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $0.9465 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $0.9461 – 2014 high Apr 10
LPRICE: $0.9424
SUP 1: $0.9367 – Hourly resistance June 17 now support
SUP 2: $0.9338 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9233 – Low June 3
SUP 4: $0.9210 – 100-DMA
The rally and break of the double daily top to start the new week stalled ahead of the 2014 high with bears taking some comfort in the lack of follow through combined with daily studies that remain at O/B levels. The $0.8642 low from last week remains key support with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure with immediate focus then shifting to the 55-DMA and overall focus to the $0.8413-81 region.
RES 4: $0.8832 – 1.382 projection of $0.8516-0.8745
RES 3: $0.8803 – 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $0.8779 – 2014 High May 6
RES 1: $0.8748 – High June 23
LPRICE: $0.8715
SUP 1: $0.8642 – Low June 17
SUP 2: $0.8604 – Hourly support June 12, 55-DMA
SUP 3: $0.8572 – 21-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8532 – 100-DMA
After spiking above the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0793) last week the AUD/NZD has closed above on Monday and combined with O/S daily studies looking for a correction provides some comfort to bulls. Overall bulls still need to see a close above the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and see immediate focus shift to the 21 and then 200-DMA’s. While the 55-DMA caps bears target a break lower but O/S studies are expected limit downside follow through.
RES 4: NZ$1.0901 – Hourly resistance June 12
RES 3: NZ$1.0894 – 21-DMA
RES 2: NZ$1.0875 – High June 13
RES 1: NZ$1.0844 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: NZ$1.0817
SUP 1: NZ$1.0762 – Low June 23
SUP 2: NZ$1.0732 – Low June 18
SUP 3: NZ$1.0648 – Monthly Low May 6
SUP 4: NZ$1.0640 – Low Mar 27
The move higher to start the new week fell short of testing the 2014 high with divergence noted on the daily studies providing bears with a glimmer of hope. Initial support is noted on the hourlies at Y95.67 with a close below seeing immediate focus shift to the key moving averages. The Y96.51 2014 high remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to kick start bullish momentum and shift immediate focus to levels last seen in June 2013.
RES 4: Y97.36 – High June 3 & 4 2013
RES 3: Y96.61 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Y96.51 – 2014 high Apr 4
RES 1: Y96.32 – High June 23
LPRICE: Y96.01
SUP 1: Y95.67 – Low June 23
SUP 2: Y95.36 – 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y95.22 – 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y94.26 – Low June 2
The move lower bounced from ahead of the 2014 low but the EUR/AUD remained capped ahead of A$1.4495 to start the new week. Initial resistance is noted at A$1.4495 but it is A$1.4561 that is key with bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the falling daily trend line and 21-DMA. Overall focus then shifts to the 200-DMA. While A$1.4561 caps bears will target further tests of the 2014 low. The only concern for bears are O/S daily studies.
RES 4: A$1.4714 – 55-DMA
RES 3: A$1.4561 – 21-DMA, Falling daily trend line
RES 2: A$1.4555 – Hourly resistance June 10
RES 1: A$1.4495 – High June 19
LPRICE: A$1.4445
SUP 1: A$1.4359 – 2014 Low June 12
SUP 2: A$1.4318 – Low Nov 20 2013, 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: A$1.4144 – Low Nov 8 2013
SUP 4: A$1.4051 – Monthly Low Nov 7 2013
