The Dollar is somewhat off balance this morning because of fairly decent Euro zone industrial outputfigures provides some pause to would-be Dollar buyers. In fact, the Euro zone data overnight has apparentlyresulted in some upwardly revised Euro zone growth forecasts. Given the better look from the Euro zone, datafrom the US later this morning will take on added importance. Expectations call for a +0.7% gain in retail salesand a minor decline in weekly claims. It would appear that the Dollar is short term technically overbought and withthe recent pattern of economic results from the US showing mixed data we suspect the trade will come away fromthe scheduled US data with some selling interest in the Dollar. Near term downside targeting in the SeptemberDollar is seen at 80.78 and then again down at 80.66.
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. Themarket’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing pricereversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market isin a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside target is at 81.02. The next area of resistance is around 80.92and 81.02, while 1st support hits today at 80.70 and below there at 80.59.