The move lower continued on Wednesday with it having paused ahead of the May 2 low so far. Bears remain firmly focused on a break lower that initially targets the 200-DMA and then the 100-DMA. Bulls need to see a close above $0.9275 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure whereas a close above the 21-DMA is needed to shift overall focus higher. Daily studies have corrected back to more neutral levels and are no longer an issue
RES 4: $0.9335 – High May 20
RES 3: $0.9310 – 21-DMA
RES 2: $0.9275 – Hourly resistance May 20
RES 1: $0.9250 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9236
SUP 1: $0.9205 – Low May 2
SUP 2: $0.9172 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: $0.9100 – 100-DMA
SUP 4: $0.8997 – Low Mar 20
NZD/USD finally broke lower, taking out and closing below both the 21-DMA ($0.8622) and 55-DMA ($0.8598) on Tuesday before continuing the move lower yesterday. Immediate focus has seen bears now initially targeting the $0.8501-18 region and then the $0.8440-60 region overall. Bulls need to see a close back above the $0.8620 level to ease the renewed bearish pressure.
RES 4: $0.8695 – High May 15
RES 3: $0.8655 – High May 16
RES 2: $0.8620 – Hourly resistance May 20, 21-DMA
RES 1: $0.8601 – 55-DMA
LPRICE: $0.8560
SUP 1: $0.8518 – Low Apr 29
SUP 2: $0.8501 – Low Mar 20
SUP 3: $0.8480 – 38.2% Fibonacci 0.8052-0.8745
SUP 4: $0.8462 – 100-DMA
AUD/NZD has worked its way through the NZ$1.0792-1.0810 support region with bears now firmly focused on the NZ$1.0728-55 region and a break lower seeing the NZ$1.0644 May 27 low. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0836 to ease the current bearish pressure and a close above NZ$1.0858 to shift focus back to 2014 highs. Daily tech studies are heading lower from O/B levels and add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: NZ$1.0908 – 38.2% Fibonacci 1.1579-1.0476
RES 3: NZ$1.0878 – High May 14
RES 2: NZ$1.0858 – High May 19
RES 1: NZ$1.0836 – Hourly resistance May 20
LPRICE: NZ$1.0780
SUP 1: NZ$1.0753 – 100-DMA
SUP 2: NZ$1.0728 – Low May 7
SUP 3: NZ$1.0701 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: NZ$1.0644 – Low May 27
Following on from the sharp break and close below the 55-DMA on Tuesday AUD/JPY continued the move lower Wednesday with a brief dip below the 100-DMA. Bears now need to see a close above the Y93.98-94.28 region to ease bearish pressure and see focus shift higher to retests of the 21-DMA. Immediate focus remains on the 100 & 200-DMA’s with a close below the 200-DMA then seeing the Y91.18 low from Mar 17.
RES 4: Y95.22 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
ES 3: Y94.78 – High May 20
RES 2: Y94.28 – Low May 5 now resistance
RES 1: Y93.98 – Hourly resistance May 20
LPRICE: Y93.70
SUP 1: Y93.33 – 100-DMA
SUP 2: Y92.85 – 200-DMA
SUP 3: Y91.18 – Low Mar 17
SUP 4: Y90.05 – Monthly low Mar 3
The hesitation around the recent fresh 2014 lows has been followed up with a bounce that has seen the pair break back above the 21-DMA only to run out of steam at the 200-DMA hurdle. Overall bears look for a close below $1.4706 to reconfirm bearish focus and retarget 2014 lows. Bulls now look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break higher with immediate focus shift to the 55-DMA.
RES 4: A$1.5103 – 100-DMA
RES 3: A$1.5021 – High Apr 29
RES 2: A$1.4935 – 55-DMA
RES 1: A$1.4874 – 200-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4810
SUP 1: A$1.4706 – High May 19 now support
SUP 2: A$1.4560 – 2014 Low May 15
SUP 3: A$1.4510 – 21 week lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: A$1.4476 – High Nov 13 2013 now support
